OptionProbability
China sanctioned by US + Europe
CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan
CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]
Taiwan blockaded before invasion
Japan allows use of airbases
US military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded
Chinese mainland bombed
Taiwan surrenders
Chinese warships sunk by US submarine
Japanese military intervention
Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month
Chinese warships sunk by US airforce
China attacks Japan
Food shortages in China
Oil shortages in China
Philippines attacked by Chinese
Guam attacked by Chinese
Philippines allows use of airbases
South Korea allows use of airbases
Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months
Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]
European military intervention
Japan attacked by Chinese
South Korean military intervention
China attacks South Korea
Indian military intervention
US combat troops in Taiwan
US aircraft carrier sunk
US destroys TSMC factories
Tactical nuclear weapon used
Nuclear weapon used against civilians
75
70
68
61
56
55
54
48
47
45
44
43
42
41
40
39
38
37
36
33
31
28
24
19
12
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1216
900
294
34
1007
980
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