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Prediction markets for Information
Will Manifold leak KYC information by the end of 2026?
Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.01%chance
143993
OptionVotes
1999
500
It is possible for information to travel faster than the speed of light
Jan 8, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
7.27%chance
192304
OptionVotes
1308
943
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
May 19, 8:29 PMDec 31, 7:00 AM
50.18%chance
171774
OptionVotes
1030
965
Will I endorse Ben Pace's "Sharing Information About Nonlinear" article was given what was known at the time, in 5 years
Sep 10, 10:38 AMSep 17, 10:59 PM
46.43%chance
91725
OptionVotes
1074
931
Will a reliable useful neural device that transmits information about users thoughts be released before the end of 2028?
Nov 6, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.26%chance
181633
OptionVotes
1119
852
Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?
Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
61.15%chance
291309
OptionVotes
1046
944
Will "The Information: OpenAI shows 'Strawberry' to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Aug 28, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7.55%chance
21015
OptionVotes
1811
908
Will the Information Commissioner of Canada Resign in 2025?
Jul 18, 7:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.17%chance
6999
OptionVotes
1037
964
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.55%chance
15385
OptionVotes
1104
965
Will there be a major bioattack by EOY 2025 where an LLM provided relevant information to the attacker(s)?
May 25, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5.15%chance
12374
OptionVotes
429
23
Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?
Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
89.19%chance
14354
OptionVotes
1329
932
Will "Information vs Assurance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Nov 27, 9:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15%chance
11
OptionVotes
101
93
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