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Top stories

Israel Pounds Gaza and Intercepts Yemeni Drone, Missile in Escalating Conflict

Israel Pounds Gaza and Intercepts Yemeni Drone, Missile in Escalating Conflict

Authors

11

1 year ago

Israel Strikes Sanaa Again, Probing Reports of Houthi Leadership Deaths

Israel Strikes Sanaa Again, Probing Reports of Houthi Leadership Deaths

Authors

44

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Iran

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

19492958216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40001

4496

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.52%chance

211374483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

570

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28167065

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.21%chance

24495332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11371

2674

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

29.3%chance

9316362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

91

Will Iran sink a US Navy ship before 2030?

Jun 23, 3:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.54%chance

7513604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5637

2818

Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?

Mar 13, 8:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.37%chance

9011080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8139

4993

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.65%chance

468406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4535

221

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.05%chance

317032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2473

968

Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September?

Jul 16, 10:45 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

255537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran, will Dems win the Senate?

Mar 16, 5:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

49.33%chance

273597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2331

1510

Will the U.S. or Israel be at war with Iran at any point during the year in which global peak oil is reached?

May 10, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes, Israel

Yes, Both U.S. and Israel

No, and the year is before 2030

Peak oil occurs 2030 or later

25

25

25

25

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