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Top stories

Claudia Sheinbaum Proposes Genaro Lozano as Mexico’s Ambassador to Italy; Senate Ratifies Amid Opposition Criticism

Claudia Sheinbaum Proposes Genaro Lozano as Mexico’s Ambassador to Italy; Senate Ratifies Amid Opposition Criticism

Authors

6

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Italian government

what will be the result of the Italian constitutional referendum on March 22nd-23rd?

Mar 21, 11:05 AMMar 24, 1:59 PM

20%chance

164127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

74%chance

292078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1723

233

Will the italian government last for the entire term of office?

Mar 8, 12:37 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

80.91%chance

242042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1826

131

What wins in the 2026 Italian constitutional referendum?

Dec 23, 9:57 PMMar 24, 11:59 PM

20%chance

291930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

111

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

57.65%chance

151521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1400

302

Will Trump change the name of D.C. from "District of Columbia" to "Dark Carnival" in his second term?

Jan 31, 10:35 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1.05%chance

71109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

10

What % of the vote will ORA! get in the next Italian elections?

Nov 11, 1:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4475

OptionProbability

<0.5%

3% - 4%

6%>

0.5% - 1%

1% - 2%

2% - 3%

4% - 5%

5% - 6%

51

8

8

7

7

7

7

7

Will the current Italian government complete its full term until 2027?

Jan 2, 8:58 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

63.86%chance

9202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Which parties will be part of the next Italian government?

Jan 7, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

3161

OptionProbability

Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)

Forza Italia

Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)

League (Lega)

Noi Moderati

Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)

Action - Italia Viva (Azione/Italia Viva)

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS)

Più Europa

Free and Equal (Liberi e Uguali)

76

59

59

54

41

34

34

30

17

10

Italy judicial reform: Disciplinary case against a magistrate investigating a sitting politician by EOY 2032?

Mar 12, 11:38 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

58.59%chance

447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Italy judicial reform: Will the new prosecutors' council (CSM requirente) have 20+ members?

Mar 12, 11:33 AMDec 31, 12:32 PM

50%chance

345

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Italy judicial reform: Will the first implementing legislation be a "legge delega" (delegation to the Government)?

Mar 12, 7:57 PMDec 31, 8:56 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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