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Top stories

Sheinbaum Backs Electoral Reform as Hugo Aguilar Leads Suprema Corte and PAN to Preside Chamber of Deputies

Sheinbaum Backs Electoral Reform as Hugo Aguilar Leads Suprema Corte and PAN to Preside Chamber of Deputies

Authors

6

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Judicial Election

Will Joe Biden win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1.67%chance

2111408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5867

737

Will Donald Trump win 2,024 elections?

May 9, 5:39 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3.87%chance

238337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3036

823

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91516

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

92

76

74

74

53

41

4

Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?

Jul 23, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101222

OptionProbability

Jorge Quiroga

Samuel Doria Medina

Andrónico Rodríguez

Manfred Reyes Villa

Eduardo del Castillo

2

1

1

1

1

Will the Presidio Trust be Dissolved by End of 2026?

Feb 20, 2:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.32%chance

4743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1717

582

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Georgia?

Jul 17, 8:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10467

OptionProbability

Democratic

Republican

71

29

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

20%chance

6401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will significant prosecutorial reform be enacted in South Korea by 2028?

Dec 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.24%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will Bolsonaro be declared ineligible for the 2030 general elections?

Jul 8, 11:11 AMOct 6, 2:59 AM

85.22%chance

9344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

305

56

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

20.09%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

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