Just In Case News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Fair elections in 2028

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

War is declared against another nation

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

NATO invokes Article 5

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Fold a paper airplane

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Make correct Truchet tiles

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

Kill everyone - Liron

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

@Joshua

@Gabrielle

@dreev

@Lorxus

@Anthem

@jgyou aka JGY

@roma

@jcb

@WilliamEhlhardt

@brubsby (NO)

@tfae

@jskf

@bohaska

@DylanSlagh

@AlexbGoode (NO)

@AnthonyPeterson (NO)

@tiswtr (NO)

@snoozingnewt (NO)

@case (NO)

@Nikos (NO)

@Primer

@Ernie

Other

@JoshuaB (NO)

@dylanslagh [dup]

@firstuserhere (NO)

@ArkPoint (NO)

@vansh (NO)

@Charlie (NO)

@CamillePerrin (NO)

YES

Bowers v. Hardwick

Humphrey's Executor v. United States

Williams v. Florida (number of jurors)

Locke v. Davey

Carey v. Population Services International (Might be N/A'ed. See Below)

Employment Division v. Smith

Morrison v. Olson

The Insular Cases

Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the restrictions on the distribution of contraceptives)

Hill v. Colorado

Arizona v. United States

Nixon v. General Services Administration

Plyler v. Doe

Carey v. Population Services International (Holding regarding the advertisement of contraceptives)

Brown v. Entertainment Merchants Association

New York Times v. Sullivan

Kennedy v. Louisiana

Mapp v. Ohio

Texas v. Johnson

Jacobson v. Massachusetts

The Slaughter House Cases

Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents

NLRB v. Noel Canning

United States v. Nixon

Trump v. Barbara

Griswold v. Connecticut

United States v. Wong Kim Ark (see note in comments)

Gideon v. Wainwright

Miranda v. Arizona

Reynolds v. Sims

Romer v. Evans

Ex parte Young

Lawrence v. Texas

Obergefell v. Hodges

Batson v. Kentucky

Will Have LEDs / lights

Will contain a circuit board

Will have readable word(s) on it

Will cost $40 or more

Will Have a physical toggle or switch (for power , settings, etc)

Will Cost $69 or more

Will cost $100 or more

Will have at least two buttons (of any type)

Weigh 200g or more

Weigh 50g or more

Will have a gyroscope or similar function via an accelerometer

Will Have a USB-A port

Could be snapped in half by human hands by an average person

Will be announced by end of 2024

Will cost $53 or more

Will use aluminum as a component

Overall color will be black

Will have a USB-C port

Weigh 500g or more

Will announce a partnership with another company at the same time

Will have a vibration / rumble motor

Releases for sale before Halloween 2024

Releases for sale before Thanksgiving 2024

Releases for sale before boxing day 2024

longer than 9 inches in any direction

Will cost $111 or more

Will come with a carrying case

Will fit in your pocket

Will have a battery

Will cost $140 or more

Will have an AUX output

Will make noise

Will have a screen

Will use bluetooth or wifi

Will cost $200 or more

Will Weigh 2 lbs or more

Will be longer than 12 inches in any dimension

anounced before end of 2025

Will be smash-specific

Will be a smart ring

releases for sale before end of 2025

No, SCOTUS will rule on no such case

Yes, and the Democratic side will win

Jarrett Keohokalole

Other

It cites Hartle (1992) "Spacetime quantum mechanics and the quantum mechanics of spacetime".

It acknowledges that the path integral formalism allows the accommodation of indefinite causal structure for quantum gravity.

It presents the "process matrix formalism" as a promising framework for studying indefinite causal structure for quantum gravity (whether or not this is the case).