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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

4 months ago

Taylor Swift Unveils 'The Life of a Showgirl' Album, Sparks 63% Odds for Super Bowl LX Halftime Show at Levi's Stadium

Prediction Markets

Taylor Swift Unveils 'The Life of a Showgirl' Album, Sparks 63% Odds for Super Bowl LX Halftime Show at Levi's Stadium

Authors

18

4 months ago

Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Primary with 31% Odds as Dwayne Johnson Rises; JD Vance Tops GOP Polls

Prediction Markets

Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Primary with 31% Odds as Dwayne Johnson Rises; JD Vance Tops GOP Polls

Authors

13

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Kalshi

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.04%chance

6545061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31568

2826

When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?

Aug 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 6:45 PM

99530

OptionProbability

2026 H1

2026 H2

After 2027 or never

2027

2025

38

25

18

14

5

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?

Mar 31, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.96%chance

102257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?

Mar 31, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.71%chance

112183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2045

489

Will the Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:26 PM

83.49%chance

81968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2249

445

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Maryland?

Jun 27, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.83%chance

241141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1639

611

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

46%chance

161122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

923

Will Manifold's employee count be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

Feb 15, 11:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.44%chance

16929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1593

852

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.14%chance

9767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

61.51%chance

3281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

791

Will the court order Kalshi to stop offering events contracts for sport in Massachusetts during it's court case?

Sep 12, 10:00 PMSep 12, 9:57 PM

43%chance

1151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?

Sep 9, 3:36 PMSep 8, 6:38 PM

54%chance

4104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

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