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Top stories

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

6 months ago

Taylor Swift Unveils 'The Life of a Showgirl' Album, Sparks 63% Odds for Super Bowl LX Halftime Show at Levi's Stadium

Prediction Markets

Taylor Swift Unveils 'The Life of a Showgirl' Album, Sparks 63% Odds for Super Bowl LX Halftime Show at Levi's Stadium

Authors

18

6 months ago

Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Primary with 31% Odds as Dwayne Johnson Rises; JD Vance Tops GOP Polls

Prediction Markets

Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Primary with 31% Odds as Dwayne Johnson Rises; JD Vance Tops GOP Polls

Authors

13

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Kalshi

When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?

Aug 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 6:45 PM

1214216

OptionProbability

2026 H1

2026 H2

After 2027 or never

2027

2025

38

27

18

14

3

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?

Mar 31, 10:38 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

29.96%chance

102257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

654

Will the Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:26 PM

80.05%chance

82213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

499

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?

Mar 31, 10:37 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM

80.64%chance

122184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2041

490

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Maryland?

Jun 27, 6:18 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

41.3%chance

271851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

840

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

48.29%chance

231447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will Kalshi release internal data on losses incurred by the bottom decile of users?

Feb 4, 6:30 PMMar 6, 11:59 PM

21.28%chance

8959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1923

520

Will Manifold's employee count be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

Feb 15, 11:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.44%chance

16929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1593

852

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.14%chance

9767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Kalshi)

Jan 21, 6:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.71%chance

4430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1243

805

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

61.51%chance

3281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1264

791

Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?

Sep 9, 3:36 PMSep 8, 6:38 PM

54%chance

4104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

923

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