Aug 28, 07:00 PM

Gavin Newsom Leads 2028 Democratic Primary with 31% Odds as Dwayne Johnson Rises; JD Vance Tops GOP Polls

California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2028 election cycle, according to multiple polls and prediction markets. Newsom's chances of securing the nomination have risen to approximately 31% on the Kalshi prediction market and 25.1% in Emerson polling, showing a substantial increase since June. He leads among California Democrats over Vice President Kamala Harris and has garnered support for his assertive approach toward the current president. Other Democratic candidates include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with an 11% chance, Pete Buttigieg at 16% in polls but 7-8% in prediction markets, and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, who has recently surpassed Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg in some prediction markets, holding around 7-8% odds. The Democratic primary field also includes Wes Moore, who is noted to be following Newsom's strategic playbook against former President Donald Trump. On the Republican side, JD Vance leads the 2028 primary with 51.7% in Emerson polling, significantly ahead of Marco Rubio at 9.4% and Ron DeSantis at 7.1%. Polls show a close 2028 general election matchup between Vance and Newsom, with Vance at 44.4% and Newsom at 43.5%. The Democratic primary landscape is seeing dynamic shifts with Newsom consolidating support and emerging as the front-runner, while Johnson's rise indicates growing competition within the party.