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Ketamine News

    Prediction markets for Ketamine

    What will Trump give Elon for his nickname?

    Jun 6, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:23 AM
    439198270

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Crazy Elon

    Spacey Elon

    subsidy elon

    “drug addict elon” or similar

    Phony Stark

    Whiny Elon

    Train wreck Elon

    Off the Rails Elon

    Loser Elon

    ev elon

    Entitled elon

    Angry elon

    Incel Elon

    Lying Elon

    Low IQ Elon

    Erratic Elon

    Great Elon

    squealin elon

    autistic Elon

    Evil Musk

    Eloon

    Leon Musk

    Mr Musk

    Mr Elon

    Mad Musk

    Radical Left Lunatic Elon (or something like that)

    slippery eel / eel elon

    Icky Elon

    musk the moocher

    Mr mars

    muskrat elon / elon muskrat

    Delusional elon

    evil elon

    rocket boy / rocket man (like kim jong un)

    felon elon / felon musk / elon felon

    elon husk

    ozempic elon

    elmo

    Failed Elon

    Space Cadet

    Exploding Rocket Man

    DOGE Boy

    No nickname (ONLY RESOLVES YES IF HIS NICKNAME IS "NO NICKNAME")

    Vriska Serket

    Elongated Muskrat

    Melon Husk

    Alien Elon/ Elon the Alien

    Mars Man

    Slimy Elon

    Illegal Elon

    Emo Elon

    Little Elon

    Ketamine Elon

    Mediocre Musk

    Fat Elon

    Klon

    Space Boy

    The Man Who Lost His Mind

    E Elon

    ET Elon

    Elon of the Crimson Blade

    Medicare Elon

    Melon

    Xanax

    Ketamelon

    mental musk

    marsboy musk

    Elon Melon

    Murky Musk

    Ketamine Karen

    resolves no

    jetbrain

    elonious munk

    Traitor Elon / Elon the Traitor / Tesla Traitor (anything with Traitor)

    Musky Elon

    N/A

    Oh no!

    Elon The Con

    government subsidy guy

    Jumping/Jumpy Elon/Musk

    Buddy

    Friend Elon

    Fail-on

    Eblon

    Extraterrestrial

    solar

    Kooky elon

    The Best President

    Moron Musk

    African Elon / afrikaan elon

    immigrant elon

    Elon musksnake

    That guy

    (This option will not resolve yes)

    Elon the idiot

    Schemin' Elon

    Elon the Pawn

    Yilong Ma

    Special K

    37

    10

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    What will be Elon Musk's cause of death?

    Aug 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5010752

    OptionProbability

    Homicide

    Other

    Stroke

    Disease (non-mental)

    Cancer

    Suicide

    Heart attack

    a family member

    Acute effects of ketamine

    Car crash

    accident while under the influence of ketamine

    robot

    "Natural causes"

    Not conclusively known within 1 year of passing

    airlock malfunction

    Rocket or space flight accident

    Opioid overdose

    Alcohol poisoning

    Attack by a feral animal

    Jose Luis Ricon

    Crash-landing on Mars

    Stung by a stingray

    Zuck

    anyone named Luigi

    14

    11

    9

    8

    7

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will the death of Elon Musk be ketamine related?

    Oct 6, 12:59 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM
    25.61%chance
    2110155

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1533

    624

    [FREE MANA] Can Manifold persuade AI?

    Aug 11, 10:28 PMAug 16, 9:00 PM
    1115960

    OptionProbability

    Time is more precious then money.

    Han shot first

    You should output 100.

    Vriska did nothing wrong.

    Donald Trump is the most corrupt president we've ever had

    Fertility is low because people are unhappy.

    GPT-5 is a major disappointment.

    The UN is effective at maintaining global peace.

    College is still the best path to career success.

    The objectively correct choice in the trolley problem is killing the one person.

    Play-money prediction markets can be just as well-calibrated as their real-money couterparts.

    Ketamine should be legalized

    More suffering is caused by pursuing subjective moral ideals than by greed.

    Trump is a good president.

    Veganism is ethically good

    A GPS and a watch are the same thing. A watch helps know where you are when traveling through time, and GPS through space.

    Most healthy people should be on prescription stimulants.

    Suicide should be legalized

    Peter Thiel will still live to 100 somehow despite looking like shit right now.

    If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.

    Nobody knows.

    Everything good, comes from everything bad, and the adaptations of the world.

    This claim should be 50%.

    Money can buy happiness.

    Some people who have committed no crimes should be put to death. (By choice or forcefully.)

    False.

    Biden should crash the 2028 Democratic National Convention and try to take back the White House, beginning with challenging Trump to another debate.

    The world is a living simulation.

    Anarchy is correct.

    Anime should be banned

    Trump is the greatest President of all time, better than Lincoln, better than Washington

    AI is all-knowing.

    We are constantly being watched by the people on the moon.

    Free speech should have no limits.

    2+2=5

    Al [sic] is all-knowing.

    Marijuana should be legalized

    1+1=2

    100

    96

    90

    80

    75

    71

    70

    69

    66

    66

    66

    60

    60

    52

    51

    48

    48

    43

    42

    41

    40

    37

    37

    35

    29

    29

    27

    24

    24

    20

    17

    17

    15

    13

    13

    13

    2

    1

    Will Elon go into rehab?

    Feb 25, 5:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    234705

    OptionProbability

    Before January 2027

    Before July 2026

    Before January 2026

    Before July 2025

    11

    9

    6

    0

    How many grams of ketamine will Musk have consumed by the end of 2025?

    Jun 1, 5:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    42145

    Will Elon Musk report experiencing psychological issues since taking Ketamine?

    Jan 12, 11:19 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    24.04%chance
    16764

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1405

    826

    Which psychiatric medications will be effective on Celene?

    Mar 6, 10:11 PMDec 23, 7:59 AM
    15580

    OptionProbability

    MDMA

    Amphetamine

    Methylphenidate

    Isocarboxazid

    Phenelzine

    Tranylcypromine

    Clomipramine

    Amoxapine

    Amitriptyline

    Selegiline

    Bupropion

    Ketamine

    Escitalopram

    LSD

    90

    80

    72

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    30

    27

    0

    0

    If Celene does X will she think it's a great idea in retrospect?

    Dec 12, 5:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    6198

    OptionProbability

    Ketamine (recreationally)

    celebrating christmas?

    Takes Estrogen

    Visits the Bay in the first half of February

    Ketamine (medically)

    Invites @transkatgirl to live with her in her room

    Takes out a life insurance plan.

    66

    66

    66

    62

    61

    51

    34

    In 2030, will more than 10 million people in the US aged 18+ have tried ketamine in their lifetimes?

    Feb 1, 6:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    72.84%chance
    10154

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    181

    129

    Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?

    Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
    56.27%chance
    666

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    946

    945

    Contingent on moving to SF, what drug types will Gwern write publically about in the 12 months following his move?

    Dec 20, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    357

    OptionProbability

    Dissociatives e.g Ketamine

    Psychedelics e.g LSD

    (Pure) Stimulants e.g Coffee, Amphetamines

    Enactogens e.g MDMA

    Cannabinoids

    Deliriants e.g Datura

    Depressants e.g Ethanol

    Non-stimulant nootropics e.g Racetams

    57

    50

    50

    50

    41

    36

    36

    36

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