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Top stories

Serve Robotics Buys Vayu Robotics; Wedbush Sees 46% Upside

Serve Robotics Buys Vayu Robotics; Wedbush Sees 46% Upside

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Level

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.9%chance

613548563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5386

853

Will we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?

Jan 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.01%chance

8579364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20640

4845

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87%chance

27243470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4674

1450

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

81.18%chance

4726438

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4084

1959

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.88%chance

12723740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3769

1429

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

165400

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

62

25

6

5

3

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.48%chance

674020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

509

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

183427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1282

780

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.06%chance

82522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12522

7986

Will the US Unemployment Rate Exceed Dotcom Bubble Levels before 2030?

Aug 7, 3:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.27%chance

82028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2040

910

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