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Prediction markets for Level
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60.5%chance
455372687
OptionVotes
3723
1531
Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?
Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM
15.68%chance
7147255
OptionVotes
22945
4656
OptionVotes
1493
817
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
76.39%chance
24534485
OptionVotes
2862
1836
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
80%chance
4624367
OptionVotes
3882
2007
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83%chance
11419905
OptionVotes
4405
1278
OptionVotes
1562
885
Will a GPT-4 level efficient HRM based language model be released before Feb 2026? [Details in description]
Jul 31, 3:58 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
19.5%chance
565505
OptionVotes
203
49
OptionProbability
28
24
11
11
10
9
7
1
P(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Dec 12, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.9%chance
673914
OptionVotes
1197
615
If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?
Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
143600
OptionProbability
54
25
9
7
5
OptionVotes
1338
747