Likeness News

Deion Sanders Reveals Aggressive Bladder Cancer, Now Cancer-Free After Surgery, Will Coach Colorado Buffaloes Third Season, Advocates Salary Cap

24 days ago

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

Aug 17, 11:50 PMAug 25, 6:59 AM

2%chance

52192987

OptionVotes

YES

7000

143

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

661140330

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

143124122

OptionVotes

YES

14461

9183

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

YES

11829

8825

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

May 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.03%chance

4914598

OptionVotes

YES

2832

661

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Jun 17, 4:16 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

1513701

OptionProbability

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

It will be released first in 2025

In mid 2026 there wil lbe more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

It will have four playable characters on release

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

It will be released first in 2024

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55.37%chance

7012277

OptionVotes

YES

1368

389

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.97%chance

5212270

OptionVotes

YES

19342

7418

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

23.47%chance

177227

OptionVotes

YES

2427

402

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

14631

6838

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

Feb 8, 2:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.94%chance

272955

OptionVotes

YES

2248

1874

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

May 27, 7:03 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

OptionProbability

Gage & Tollner

Dhamaka

Theodora

Atoboy

Tadhana

Semma

Dirt Candy

Rezdora

Crown Shy

Atera

Farra

Zou Zou

Likeness News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Prediction markets for Likeness

Will Senator Scott Wiener be employed by an AI company like Anthropic within the next 12 months?

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Will a nontoxic MDMA-like drug be legally available in the US by 2030?

Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030

What restaurants in NYC will I like if I go to them? [ADD RESPONSES]

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