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Lisa News

    Prediction markets for Lisa

    Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

    Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM
    198138354

    OptionProbability

    Hong Wang

    Jacob Tsimerman

    Karim Adiprasito

    Sam Raskin

    Jack Thorne

    John Pardon

    Maksym Radziwill

    Aleksandr Logunov

    Yu Deng

    Other

    Will Sawin

    Julian Sahasrabudhe

    Song Sun

    Miguel Walsh

    Hannah Larson

    Tatenda Kubalalika

    Elia Bruè

    Amol Aggarwal

    Akhil Mathew

    Ashwin Sah

    Vesselin Dimitrov

    Alexander Efimov

    Maria Colombo

    Simion Filip

    Jeremy Hahn

    Lisa Sauermann

    Dennis Gaitsgory

    (duplicate, will resolve no)

    Xian-Jin Li

    Yibo Gao

    Mike Wolf

    Joseph Palmer

    A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

    Jacob Braunschweig

    Igor Rodnianski

    Tasuki Kinjo

    Junliang Shen

    25

    21

    8

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    4

    4

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    J. D. Vance

    Josh Shapiro

    Gavin Newsom

    Pete Buttigieg

    J. B. Pritzker

    Gretchen Whitmer

    Marco Rubio

    Jeff Jackson

    Jon Ossoff

    Josh Hawley

    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

    Glenn Youngkin

    Elise Stefanik

    Nikki Haley

    Ron DeSantis

    Cory Booker

    Wes Moore

    Andy Beshear

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Kamala Harris

    Brian Kemp

    Amy Klobuchar

    Gina Raimondo

    Ro Khanna

    Chris Murphy

    Brian Schatz

    Tammy Duckworth

    Tammy Baldwin

    Chris Sununu

    Katie Hobbs

    Josh Green

    Tina Kotek

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Ted Cruz

    Kristi Noem

    Raphael Warnock

    Jared Polis

    Tom Cotton

    Joni Ernst

    Michael Bennet

    Catherine Cortez Masto

    Sarah Huckabee Sanders

    Kevin Stitt

    Spencer Cox

    Tim Walz

    Ivanka Trump

    Mark Cuban

    Stephen Miller

    James Donaldson (MrBeast)

    Tim Scott

    Joe Rogan

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr

    Andrew Yang

    Beto O'Rourke

    Mark Kelly

    Jay Inslee

    Deval Patrick

    Eric Swalwell

    Wayne Messam

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Julian Castro

    Dean Phillips

    Katie Britt

    Laphonza Butler

    Eric Schmitt

    Mike Lee

    Chris Coons

    Tim Kaine

    Lisa Murkowski

    Tate Reeves

    Ruben Gallego

    David Hogg

    Will Hurd

    Tulsi Gabbard

    Dan Crenshaw

    John Fetterman

    Mark Zuckerberg

    Stephen Curry

    Rand Paul

    Taylor Swift

    Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

    Matt Gaetz

    Marianne Williamson

    Ezra Klein

    Mike Pence

    Stephen Colbert

    Markwayne Mullin

    Joe Manchin

    Maura Healey

    Al Gore

    DUPLICATE

    Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

    Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Aella

    Scott Alexander

    Sam Altman

    Tucker Carlson

    Zendaya

    Michelle Obama

    Kanye West

    Mitt Romney

    Sarah Palin

    Jon Stewart

    Ben Shapiro

    Bernie Sanders

    Hillary Clinton

    Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

    Me

    Krantz (the user @Krantz)

    41

    22

    17

    14

    13

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Mainstream Media

    Letitia James

    January 6th Committee

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    LQBTQ / Trans People

    Migrants

    The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)

    Elon Musk

    Anthony Fauci

    Gen. Mark Milley

    Universities

    Paper straws

    Blinken

    Maine

    Due Process

    Alejandro Mayorkas

    Jack Smith

    Solar Energy

    Zohran Mamdani

    Leakers

    National Institutes of Health

    Bruce Springsteen

    The New York Times (NYT)

    Panama

    Alexander Vindman

    Stephen Colbert

    Joe Biden

    The Atlantic

    Greenland

    Barack Obama

    Beyoncé

    Ann Selzer

    the National Archives

    Rosie O'Donnell

    Michael Cohen

    Fluoride

    Nancy Pelosi

    Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

    Denmark

    Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)

    John Kelly

    Public Libraries

    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Miles Taylor

    Democratic Republic of the Congo

    Bill Barr

    Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer

    Seth Myers

    Taylor Swift

    Vaccine mandates

    Emmanuel Macron

    Christopher Steele

    Jimmy Kimmel

    Wikipedia

    Ken Klippenstein

    TIME magazine

    Susan Collins (R-ME)

    Any Manifold User

    Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)

    Mike Pence

    Jeff Bezos

    Mariann Edgar Budde

    SSRIs

    E. Jean Carroll

    WIRED Magazine

    Liz Cheney

    Tucker Carlson

    Brad Raffensperger

    BlueSky

    American sign language signers or interpreters

    JD Vance

    The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands

    Pete Hegseth

    Black Nationals

    Alec Baldwin

    Chappell Roan

    Bill Burr

    Not Elected

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    99

    93

    85

    83

    83

    82

    81

    80

    76

    74

    73

    70

    68

    65

    63

    62

    60

    60

    58

    55

    54

    53

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    43

    40

    38

    37

    35

    33

    32

    31

    29

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    23

    21

    20

    19

    19

    18

    14

    12

    12

    12

    10

    6

    4

    3

    2

    0

    Who will win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

    Nov 9, 4:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    81610

    OptionProbability

    Brandon Johnson

    Other

    Susana Mendoza

    Alexi Giannoulias

    Paul Vallas

    Mike Quigley

    Janice Jackson

    Anna Valencia

    Joe Ferguson

    Luis Gutiérrez

    Maria Pappas

    Brian Hopkins

    Silvana Tabares

    Gil Villegas

    Bill Conway

    Brendan Reilly

    Lisa Madigan

    Rahm Emanuel

    Kam Buckner

    Chuy Garcia

    Willie Wilson

    Lori Lightfoot

    Sophia King

    Ja'Mal Green

    Roderick Sawyer

    Toni Preckwinkle

    Bill Daley

    23

    8

    7

    6

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will the Louvre announce that they are cleaning the Mona Lisa in 2025?

    Dec 27, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    29.05%chance
    81009

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1563

    640

    Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican Party before 2029?

    Mar 24, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    28.13%chance
    23728

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1452

    752

    Mona Lisa is stolen or destroyed or lost through 2031

    Aug 31, 4:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    9.44%chance
    5219

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    221

    75

    UK increases LISA limit to £550k in London by EOY2027?

    Jun 29, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    52.91%chance
    114

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    107

    107

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    How much would you pay for the Mono Lisa?

    Aug 11, 3:54 AMApr 4, 4:59 AM
    340

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