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Prediction markets for Llama
OptionProbability
90
88
88
87
85
85
84
83
82
80
79
78
69
65
47
32
25
13
10
10
9
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)
Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
1711580
OptionProbability
93
6
1
1
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
144373
OptionProbability
100
100
70
33
11
8
5
2
1
1
OptionVotes
2188
27
OptionProbability
5
3
1
0
0
Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:
Apr 22, 4:38 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
201158
OptionProbability
23
18
0
0
0
0
In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.
Aug 18, 8:57 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
6%chance
17441
OptionVotes
396
25
OptionVotes
241
42
Meta trains model 2x larger than Behemoth in llama 4 series?
Apr 8, 9:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
10.94%chance
6253
OptionVotes
285
35
OptionVotes
221
45
OptionVotes
194
51
What will the DeFi "Total Value Locked" metric be, as defined by DeFi Llama, on 31st December 2030?
Jan 10, 1:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
260
OptionProbability
54
22
6
6
6
6
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- Reliance Plans 2026 Jio IPO, Unveils AI Venture With Google and MetaAuthors181 year ago




