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Prediction markets for LMArena

What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? 🤖📊

Jan 6, 5:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2714606

OptionProbability

Google / DeepMind

OpenAI

xAI / Grok

Anthropic / Claude

Other

DeepSeek

Meta / Facebook

44

26

14

6

5

4

2

Open-source OpenAI model beats Grok 4 on LMArena?

Jul 9, 2:22 PMAug 9, 2:18 PM

10.98%chance

398371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2847

351

GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?

Apr 1, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.08%chance

294270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

982

Non-style controlled Arena Score removed from the Chatbot Arena before 2026? [lmarena.ai]

May 29, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.55%chance

22520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3271

306

Will Moonshot top the lmarena leaderboard by EOY?

Jul 18, 9:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.09%chance

81500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2470

405

Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?

Jul 17, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

9731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

Model at 1600 Elo on lmarena before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.95%chance

8349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Is the "Lobster" model on lmarena GPT-5?

Jul 26, 6:39 AMAug 26, 3:59 AM

53.22%chance

10164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

94

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6159

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

35

28

18

7

5

2

2

2

Will Lmarena be a relevant benchmark at EOY 2025?

Jun 3, 8:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.18%chance

4125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

150

LMArena announces monetization by mid-2026?

Jun 27, 1:23 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

53.6%chance

541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

By December 31, 2025, will <30% of the Vision leaderboard on LMArena use permissive licenses?

May 31, 1:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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