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Prediction markets for LMArena
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?
Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.97%chance
1418493
OptionVotes
2262
1776
OptionProbability
100
18
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?
Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.26%chance
51300
OptionVotes
2300
574
Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?
Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
64.89%chance
5815
OptionVotes
1133
920
OptionVotes
244
41
OptionProbability
80
46
40
15
14
11
0
0
0
OptionVotes
211
47
Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?
May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.55%chance
9346
OptionVotes
144
78
OptionVotes
294
34
Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?
Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11247
OptionProbability
51
16
15
7
4
3
2
2
Will OpenAI ever top the LMArena leaderboard again before 2030?
Jan 15, 12:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
87%chance
13232
OptionVotes
259
39
OptionVotes
221
45
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