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Top stories

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Authors

10

5 months ago

Prediction markets for LMArena

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2028?

Dec 4, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.39%chance

1218303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2281

1762

Which company has the best AI model end of February 2026? (LMArena)

Jan 3, 10:56 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

122964

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

DeepSeek

Meta

Alibaba

Other

91

5

1

1

1

0

0

0

Which company has the best AI model end of March 2026? (LMArena)

Jan 3, 10:59 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

81790

OptionProbability

Google

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

81

6

5

4

1

1

1

1

Will Google remain no.1 on lmarena until EOY 2026?

Nov 24, 12:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.03%chance

15863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2029?

Jan 16, 2:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.89%chance

5815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

920

Which company has the best AI model end of June 2026? (LMArena)

Feb 4, 7:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

6725

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

Other

62

16

8

5

2

2

2

2

Will a top-10 LMArena model have weight-based online learning by 2027?

Jan 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

781

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.72%chance

7319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Which organization will top the lmarena leaderboard at the end of 2026?

Apr 22, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8193

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

Anthropic

Other

xAI

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

31

24

21

11

5

4

3

2

Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?

Jan 12, 12:50 AMAug 3, 11:59 PM

68.96%chance

9176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.74%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

LMArena announces monetization by mid-2026?

Jun 27, 1:23 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

48.5%chance

651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
AI Modeling
AI Products
AI
Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI
Authors
10
5 months ago

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