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9 months ago

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9 months ago

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17279484

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

9625

2195

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.37%chance

338438

OptionVotes

YES

5985

614

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.9%chance

512833

OptionVotes

YES

2059

657

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.28%chance

392009

OptionVotes

YES

1752

784

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

1006

924

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Aug 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

16.29%chance

301318

OptionVotes

YES

1444

853

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

26.03%chance

26903

OptionVotes

YES

1268

892

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

1145

982

Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on September 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:11 PMSep 29, 9:09 PM

87.94%chance

2170

OptionVotes

YES

270

Will the Mumbai to Ahmedabad high speed rail line open before 2030?

Sep 6, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

66.96%chance

538

OptionVotes

YES

160

110

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

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What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?

Will Narendra Modi cease to be Prime Minister of India before 2030?

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $40 per pound on September 29, 2026?

Will the Mumbai to Ahmedabad high speed rail line open before 2030?

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

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