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Prediction markets for Make Way
Will I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)
Jun 19, 12:59 AMJan 2, 1:55 AM
39.6%chance
51081
OptionVotes
1235
810
OptionProbability
80
73
68
67
65
64
58
51
50
46
40
32
30
30
19
Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 26, 3:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
19.73%chance
8594
OptionVotes
1059
701
Will AGI retaliate on AI doomers in a way that makes AI doomers regret it?
Apr 1, 9:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3%chance
5580
OptionVotes
678
37
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.55%chance
15385
OptionVotes
1104
965
Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.72%chance
2350
OptionVotes
1008
951
What is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?
May 20, 10:57 AMMay 11, 1:59 PM
11346
OptionProbability
80
15
1
1
1
1
0
Will Corning or Murata produced QS separators make their way into a sample cell in 2026?
Dec 21, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
88.38%chance
8322
OptionVotes
276
36
Will "The main way I've seen people turn ideologica..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 25, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.86%chance
2284
OptionVotes
1010
998
Will "RL & search is a terrifying way to build AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 30, 4:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.21%chance
3272
OptionVotes
1244
965
Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 21, 6:06 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.53%chance
2255
OptionVotes
1211
969
Will I find a way to make a profit off this market at resolve-time?
Jan 5, 4:23 AMJan 7, 4:10 AM
49.5%chance
8210
OptionVotes
103
97


