Make Way News
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Prediction markets for Make Way
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.13%chance
496718382
OptionVotes
16276
14269
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
10.06%chance
826508702
OptionVotes
57414
10596
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
10%chance
8141187
OptionVotes
29364
2889
Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?
Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM
75%chance
14134332
OptionVotes
10400
7578
OptionProbability
80
75
68
65
64
64
58
51
50
44
43
37
32
30
20
Will AGI retaliate on AI doomers in a way that makes AI doomers regret it?
Apr 1, 9:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3%chance
5580
OptionVotes
678
37
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Jul 27, 1:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.55%chance
15385
OptionVotes
1104
965
Will "Four ways learning Econ makes people dumber r..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Aug 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.72%chance
2350
OptionVotes
1008
951
Will Corning or Murata produced QS separators make their way into a sample cell in 2026?
Dec 21, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
88.38%chance
8322
OptionVotes
276
36
What is the best way to make forward progress in theoretical physics?
May 20, 10:57 AMMay 11, 1:59 PM
10316
OptionProbability
72
19
4
2
2
1
0
Will "The main way I've seen people turn ideologica..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Oct 25, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.91%chance
2260
OptionVotes
1173
974
Will I find a way to make a profit off this market at resolve-time?
Jan 5, 4:23 AMJan 7, 4:10 AM
54.71%chance
8199
OptionVotes
108
93


