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Top stories

Bungie CEO Pete Parsons Exits as Veteran Justin Truman Takes Helm

Bungie CEO Pete Parsons Exits as Veteran Justin Truman Takes Helm

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Marathon

Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.

Nov 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.72%chance

279884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5075

204

Will Taylor Swift get married before a swift human breaks the 2h00m00s official marathon barrier?

Jan 12, 11:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.15%chance

417969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4753

1052

When will someone run a marathon under 2:00 hours at an officially sanctioned race?

Nov 13, 2:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.33%chance

287564

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1657

359

Will Eliud Kipchoge ever win the NYC or Boston marathon?

May 7, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.8%chance

83299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1812

366

Will someone run a marathon wearing an Apple Vision Pro?

Feb 11, 5:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.02%chance

272842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2519

100

Will humans run a two hour marathon before humanoid robots?

Apr 19, 7:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

332108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will a human run a marathon under 2 hours before the Russia-Ukraine war ends

Mar 29, 9:40 PMDec 6, 4:59 AM

25.63%chance

231805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

623

Marathon hits 100K concurrent Steam players before 2026?

Apr 21, 6:51 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3.49%chance

8833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

526

19

In what year will a bipedal robot break the human marathon world record time?

Mar 10, 4:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

Other

2029

2030

2031

2025

29

15

15

11

10

8

6

5

In 2025: human marathon under 2h OR Bitcoin reaches $150K OR perfect game pitched OR Manifold reaches 40K MAU?

Jan 4, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.14%chance

8366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

85

Will Marathon (Bungie's new game) release before the Legend of Zelda Movie (Nintendo)?

Dec 26, 2:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

44.06%chance

13350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

816

Is 7A+ harder than marathon?

Oct 25, 9:50 AMDec 31, 9:06 AM

77.14%chance

6135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

54

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