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Top stories

Sharpton Leads Wall Street March Defending Corporate DEI Efforts

US Domestic Policy

Sharpton Leads Wall Street March Defending Corporate DEI Efforts

Authors

16

5 months ago

Prediction markets for March

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

45%chance

231391548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6865

2234

How many users will get a Manifold subscription before March 1st?

Jan 21, 6:46 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

96106258

OptionProbability

Above 50

Above 100

Above 500

Above 1,000

Above 5,000

100

100

5

2

1

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets more than 5M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 8:00 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

99%chance

614929

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15977

100

Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet]

Mar 13, 11:40 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

44.56%chance

525586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

896

OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?

Aug 15, 8:17 AMApr 1, 11:59 PM

12.97%chance

145478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5139

607

Will I weigh <89.5kg at any point before March 1st?

Jan 13, 4:20 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

76.26%chance

264956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3320

1331

Will there be more mana purchased in March 2026 than in December 2025?

Jan 11, 4:53 AMApr 1, 3:52 AM

52.29%chance

334593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6295

3717

Any FrontierMath Open Problems problem solved before March?

Jan 27, 6:40 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

41%chance

252127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will Jimmy Kimmel Live post a video by March 31st with ‘Trump’ in the title and it gets less than 1M views after 7 days?

Jan 27, 7:52 AMApr 7, 11:59 PM

5.95%chance

12000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

1010

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

29.91%chance

81470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

1727

Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?

Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

63.21%chance

241238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

437

Will Purdue be in the Final Four of March Madness?

Dec 11, 3:54 AMApr 4, 11:59 PM

24.37%chance

81136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

366

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
US Domestic Policy
New York
Politics
Sharpton Leads Wall Street March Defending Corporate DEI Efforts
Authors
16
5 months ago

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