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Top stories

Pope Leo XIV Tells Catholic Influencers to Keep Humanity at Heart Online

Pope Leo XIV Tells Catholic Influencers to Keep Humanity at Heart Online

Authors

6

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Mass

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.98%chance

2212035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12261

8153

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

7010719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2233

521

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.33%chance

695805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

2205

Will more than 10,000 people die as a result of Trump's mass deportations?

Nov 8, 7:08 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

15.52%chance

312448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

1530

Will at least one >80% subsaharan ancestry country score above Ukraine on PISA for at least one year before 2100 without mass genetic enhancement?

Jan 17, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.5%chance

241211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1938

1060

Will food prices rise by 15% or more after mass deportations?

Sep 17, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.31%chance

9969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

713

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.09%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

954

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.9%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

977

Will any state or company implement mass production of living humans by 2200?

Mar 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.98%chance

18561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

983

Will there be a mass-produced reversible computer on the market by 2032?

May 16, 12:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.64%chance

15370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

973

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

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