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Top stories

FAA Clears Starship Flight 10, SpaceX Targets Aug. 24 Launch

FAA Clears Starship Flight 10, SpaceX Targets Aug. 24 Launch

Authors

28

18 hours ago

Prediction markets for May incident

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.66%chance

21746846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2731

613

Jeffrey Epstein fowl play confirmed in 2025?

Jul 12, 2:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.98%chance

10913710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4106

339

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan be happily married and monogamous for life?

Feb 28, 12:05 AMMar 6, 4:59 AM

36.33%chance

462024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

757

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

49.59%chance

171736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will there be a NASA report on Starliner problems?

Aug 20, 11:42 PMJun 6, 5:59 AM

75.51%chance

151348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1756

570

Will Oceangate face more than $1M fines, settlements and judgements as a result of the submersible incident?

Jun 20, 11:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.76%chance

171064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

689

Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?

Dec 27, 11:51 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.64%chance

191048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

921

Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026

Jun 2, 6:02 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.42%chance

14687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

Will the US implement AI incident reporting requirements by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.04%chance

11307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

931

Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?

Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

6284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Space
Texas
Science
FAA Clears Starship Flight 10, SpaceX Targets Aug. 24 Launch
Authors
28
18 hours ago

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