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Top stories

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

Authors

17

9 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

8 months ago

Prediction markets for May

Total mana purchases in USD (Apr 8 - May 8)

Apr 10, 1:24 AMApr 10, 6:59 AM

1667657

OptionProbability

Above 500

Above 1,000

Above 2,000

Above 5,000

Above 10,000

Above 25,000

Above 50,000

100

100

100

100

4

1

1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]

Apr 10, 4:26 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

26.46%chance

19452890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1549

709

Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?

Apr 30, 3:51 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

59.47%chance

629942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

826

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

639602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

953

Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $100 on May 11, 2026?

May 1, 6:50 PMMay 10, 11:59 PM

63.06%chance

718587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

765

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

44.29%chance

266835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

369

Bitcoin $84K in May?

May 1, 7:37 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

70%chance

375585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

655

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Apr 25, 1:13 AMApr 25, 6:59 AM

85305

OptionProbability

Below $500,000

$500,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$3,000,000 - $4,000,000

Above $4,000,000

34

18

17

12

11

6

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

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