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Top stories

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

Mexico City Detains 13, Including Three Directly Involved, in May Killings of Mayor Brugada’s Collaborators Amid CJNG Arms Arrests

Authors

17

4 months ago

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

NYT: Russian Drones Track U.S. Arms Routes in Germany; Kremlin Denies

Authors

12

3 months ago

Prediction markets for May

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.24%chance

639302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1859

958

Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?

Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

9.83%chance

518735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4084

124

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.35%chance

422502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1902

526

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

54.99%chance

14475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

592

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

27.54%chance

14379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

957

I remember this market and open this page between May 1-3, 2026?

Aug 3, 9:23 PMMay 4, 9:19 PM

54.17%chance

5233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1087

920

Will "How middle powers may prevent the development..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 2, 8:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Which countries will have representation in Subway Builder by the end of May 2026?

Oct 21, 1:45 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇯🇵 Japan

🇲🇽 Mexico

🇫🇷 France

50

50

50

50

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