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Mega News

    Prediction markets for Mega

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

    Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    6457538

    OptionProbability

    China sanctioned by US + Europe

    Taiwan blockaded before invasion

    Japan allows use of airbases

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

    Japan attacked by Chinese

    China attacks Japan

    Malacca Strait blockaded

    Guam attacked by Chinese

    Oil shortages in China

    US destroys TSMC factories

    US military intervention

    Japanese military intervention

    Taiwan surrenders

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

    Philippines allows use of airbases

    Philippines attacked by Chinese

    US combat troops in Taiwan

    US aircraft carrier sunk

    Chinese mainland bombed

    Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

    Food shortages in China

    South Korea allows use of airbases

    South Korean military intervention

    Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

    European military intervention

    Indian military intervention

    China attacks South Korea

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

    Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Tactical nuclear weapon used

    Nuclear weapon used against civilians

    78

    75

    69

    67

    67

    61

    60

    55

    54

    54

    52

    51

    50

    50

    49

    47

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    38

    37

    35

    33

    31

    30

    12

    10

    Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

    Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    3.95%chance
    929789

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4626

    724

    China and Taiwan 2030 [Mega Market]

    Jul 18, 11:46 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    92128

    OptionProbability

    Taiwan's ally count falls to 11

    China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)

    Taiwan's ally count falls to 10

    China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)

    China shoots down a Taiwanese plane

    If China attacks, they fight US forces within 21 days

    China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)

    If China attacks, they fight US forces within 14 days

    China controls Wuqiu

    Taiwan's ally count falls to 9

    Taiwan's ally count falls to 8

    If China attacks, they fight US forces within 7 days

    100+ people are killed in the conflict

    China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)

    China controls Kinmen

    China controls Matsu

    China controls Penghu

    1k+ people are killed in the conflict

    10k+ people are killed in the conflict

    100k+ people are killed in the conflict

    China detonates a nuclear weapon

    72

    67

    63

    63

    62

    59

    56

    55

    51

    50

    50

    50

    47

    40

    39

    39

    39

    39

    39

    38

    10

    Red Bull Racing Chaos Mega Market

    Jul 9, 9:03 PMJan 1, 9:53 PM
    82096

    OptionProbability

    Helmut Marko leaves RBR before 2027

    Max Verstappen drives at least one race for RBR in 2026

    Laurent Mekies still RBR TP by July 9th 2026

    RBR wins another WDC or WCC before 2036

    Hannah Schmitz leaves RBR before 2027 season

    Jonathan Wheatley returns to RBR by 2027

    Christian Horner returns to RBR before 2032

    Christian Horner TP at another F1 team by start of 2026 season

    100

    97

    88

    60

    55

    53

    22

    8

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Has external battery

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

    95

    89

    87

    72

    72

    66

    50

    50

    50

    49

    48

    38

    19

    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1018

    966

    OptionProbability

    Nikki Glaser

    Simone Biles

    Glenn Powell

    Keanu Reeves

    Florence Pugh

    Ali Wong

    Steven Yeun

    Zendaya

    Rachel McAdams

    Finn Wolfhard

    Tom Holland

    Christian Bale

    Noah Centineo

    Jacob Tremblay

    Zazie Beetz

    Hailee Steinfeld

    Olivia Cooke

    Kiernan Shipka

    Joaquin Phoenix

    Tom Cruise

    Brad Pitt

    Leonardo DiCaprio

    Millie Bobby Brown

    Chloe Grace Moretz

    Daisy Ridley

    76

    76

    76

    63

    57

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    41

    OptionProbability

    Went to an Ivy League school

    Once confirmed, will be the 9th member of the court

    Replacing a live, retired Justice

    Older than 50

    Nominated by a Republican President

    Male

    White

    Has children

    Nominated by Joe Biden

    85

    81

    78

    56

    52

    50

    50

    50

    13

    Tianwen-4 Jupiter Mission Mega Market

    Oct 15, 3:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    5125

    OptionProbability

    Tianwen-4 successfully enters Jupiter orbit

    Tianwen-4 launches with a secondary Uranus flyby probe

    Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto impacter

    Juice and Europa Clipper are both still active when Tianwen-4 arrives at Jupiter

    Tianwen-4 successfully enters Callisto orbit

    Tianwen-4 launches before 2030

    Tianwen-4 launches after 2030 and before 2035

    Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto lander

    Tianwen-4 launches in 2030

    78

    73

    68

    68

    58

    57

    38

    22

    15

    OptionProbability

    Greninja

    Chesnaught

    Delphox

    Dragonite

    Hawlucha

    Raichu X

    Raichu Y

    Malamar

    Victreebel

    76

    66

    66

    52

    50

    50

    50

    41

    27

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