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Mega News

    Prediction markets for Mega

    Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)

    Mar 9, 1:16 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    6457546

    OptionProbability

    China sanctioned by US + Europe

    Taiwan blockaded before invasion

    Japan allows use of airbases

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Oil shortages in South Korea or Japan

    CCP in power in 2050 [IF INVADE]

    Japan attacked by Chinese

    China attacks Japan

    Malacca Strait blockaded

    Guam attacked by Chinese

    Oil shortages in China

    US destroys TSMC factories

    US military intervention

    Japanese military intervention

    Taiwan surrenders

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 1 month

    Philippines allows use of airbases

    Philippines attacked by Chinese

    US combat troops in Taiwan

    US aircraft carrier sunk

    Chinese mainland bombed

    Chinese warships sunk by US airforce

    Food shortages in China

    South Korea allows use of airbases

    South Korean military intervention

    Chinese warships sunk by US submarine

    European military intervention

    Indian military intervention

    China attacks South Korea

    Malacca Strait blockaded > 12 months

    Peaceful unification by 2050 [IF DON'T INVADE]

    Tactical nuclear weapon used

    Nuclear weapon used against civilians

    78

    75

    69

    67

    67

    61

    60

    55

    54

    54

    52

    51

    50

    50

    49

    47

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    38

    37

    35

    33

    31

    31

    12

    10

    (Week 9) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide 🏈

    Nov 4, 1:23 AMNov 10, 4:59 AM
    2829668

    OptionProbability

    Jaguars beat Ravens (11/05) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

    Lions beat Dolphins (11/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

    Texans beat Chargers (11/08) 4:05 PM (CBS)

    Cowboys beat Colts (11/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

    Rams beat Commanders (11/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

    Bengals beat Falcons (11/08) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

    Bills beat Vikings (11/09) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

    Giants beat Eagles (11/08) 1:00 PM (FOX)

    Broncos beat Panthers (11/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

    Browns beat Saints (11/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

    Packers beat Patriots (11/08) 4:25 PM (FOX)

    Buccaneers beat Bears (11/08) 8:20 PM (NBC)

    Cardinals beat Seahawks (11/08) 4:25 PM (FOX)

    Jets beat Chiefs (11/08) 1:00 PM (CBS)

    Raiders beat 49ers (11/08) 4:25 PM (FOX)

    100

    74

    71

    68

    67

    62

    62

    61

    57

    39

    39

    29

    20

    19

    19

    Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

    Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    4.06%chance
    929899

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4516

    729

    USA adds an amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, financial collapse, or mega-down in 2026

    Jan 1, 4:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    7%chance
    82781

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3645

    274

    What will be true of a future, simpler version of Apple Vision Pro? [Mega market]

    Feb 15, 11:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    162038

    OptionProbability

    Has eye tracking

    Has Mac Virtual Display functionality

    Has external battery

    Comes with only one band, that has a part that goes over the top of your head.

    Has built in speakers for audio

    Will have a glass front

    Sells more than 1 million units in its first year

    Priced under $2,000

    Has on-device LLM (e.g. through Siri or standalone) integrated

    Has "Air" in its name

    Primarily made of aluminum

    Has an external display (like eyesight)

    Is released under another CEO than Tim Cook

    Priced under $1000

    Will require an iPhone to operate (relies on that for power, compute or storage).

    Priced lower than $199

    Priced lower than $299

    In consumer hands (anywhere) before April 1st 2025

    95

    89

    87

    72

    72

    66

    50

    50

    50

    49

    47

    38

    19

    18

    13

    7

    5

    4

    Will the "Mega Backdoor" Roth 401k tax loophole be removed by end of 2030?

    Jan 22, 6:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    38.77%chance
    19720

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1018

    966

    USA adds an amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, financial collapse, or mega-down by 2030

    Jan 1, 4:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    44%chance
    5502

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1128

    886

    Will there be a Megas XLR reboot or remake by the end of 2026?

    Sep 7, 12:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    4.06%chance
    4387

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    486

    21

    Any of the 12 mega-bridge markets happens through 2040

    Aug 28, 1:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    74.39%chance
    9133

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    240

    163

    Tianwen-4 Jupiter Mission Mega Market

    Oct 15, 3:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    5125

    OptionProbability

    Tianwen-4 successfully enters Jupiter orbit

    Tianwen-4 launches with a secondary Uranus flyby probe

    Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto impacter

    Juice and Europa Clipper are both still active when Tianwen-4 arrives at Jupiter

    Tianwen-4 successfully enters Callisto orbit

    Tianwen-4 launches before 2030

    Tianwen-4 launches after 2030 and before 2035

    Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto lander

    Tianwen-4 launches in 2030

    78

    73

    68

    68

    58

    57

    38

    22

    15

    Members of the legislature (congress, parliament) in a country come to blows this year? mega-market

    Mar 22, 7:24 PMDec 31, 8:16 PM
    6105

    OptionProbability

    Egypt

    France

    Spain

    USA

    India

    UK

    54

    51

    46

    44

    41

    15

    will an episode of a megas xlr reboot air before the end of 2028?

    Jan 15, 2:26 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM
    29.88%chance
    397

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    153

    65

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