Merkava News

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War Ends in June

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

A second cease-fire is announced

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Israel government dissolves

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Iran launches a cruise missile

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

War ends in July

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Iranian government dissolves

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

Iran regime change

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

Total casualties exceed 10,000

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.