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Top stories

Meta Launches Global AI-Powered English-Spanish Voice Translation with Real-Time Dubbing for Instagram and Facebook Reels

Meta Launches Global AI-Powered English-Spanish Voice Translation with Real-Time Dubbing for Instagram and Facebook Reels

Authors

18

1 year ago

WhatsApp Adds Voicemail Feature for Missed Calls in Android Beta 2.25.23.21 Alongside New Modes and Privacy Enhancements

WhatsApp Adds Voicemail Feature for Missed Calls in Android Beta 2.25.23.21 Alongside New Modes and Privacy Enhancements

Authors

9

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Meta AI

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

4418249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19828

4806

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.03%chance

302990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

What organization will first create superintelligence?

Sep 30, 10:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

281386

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Other

OpenAI

United States government

xAi

DeepMind

Meta AI

31

26

16

12

7

6

2

Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.7%chance

10464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

90.1%chance

5210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

49

Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B?

Apr 29, 8:54 AMFeb 28, 10:00 PM

67.15%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

60

How many MAUs will Meta's Muse AI agent have end of March 2027?

Sep 24, 2:22 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

541

OptionProbability

50 million to 250M million

More than 250 million

15 million to 50 million

Less than 15 million

41

23

22

13

Does open sourcing LLMs/AI models (a la meta) increase risk of AI catastrophe?

Mar 12, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.54%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

120

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