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Meta Platforms News

    Prediction markets for Meta Platforms

    Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?

    Dec 29, 11:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3314736

    OptionProbability

    Micron Technology (MU)

    ExxonMobil (XOM)

    Lam Research (LRCX)

    Applied Materials (AMAT)

    Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

    Caterpillar (CAT)

    Chevron (CVX)

    Alphabet Class A (GOOGL)

    Broadcom (AVGO)

    Alphabet Class C (GOOG)

    Costco (COST)

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

    Walmart (WMT)

    Amazon (AMZN)

    Coca-Cola (KO)

    Merck & Co. (MRK)

    Citigroup (C)

    Cisco (CSCO)

    Nvidia (NVDA)

    Morgan Stanley (MS)

    Philip Morris (PM)

    UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

    Goldman Sachs (GS)

    Procter & Gamble (PG)

    Apple (AAPL)

    T-Mobile US (TMUS)

    Netflix (NFLX)

    Eli Lilly (LLY)

    RTX Corporation (RTX)

    GE Aerospace (GE)

    McDonald's (MCD)

    Meta Platforms (META)

    Tesla (TSLA)

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

    Bank of America (BAC)

    Home Depot (HD)

    Oracle (ORCL)

    AbbVie (ABBV)

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

    Visa (V)

    American Express (AXP)

    Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

    Mastercard (MA)

    Microsoft (MSFT)

    Salesforce (CRM)

    AppLovin (APP)

    Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)

    Wells Fargo (WFC)

    IBM (IBM)

    Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

    86

    78

    77

    77

    76

    75

    74

    66

    66

    65

    65

    64

    63

    61

    59

    59

    58

    55

    53

    52

    52

    50

    50

    46

    43

    40

    38

    36

    34

    33

    32

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    30

    30

    29

    28

    24

    23

    20

    18

    18

    18

    18

    17

    17

    11

    Which companies will be in the Top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2026?

    Jan 1, 3:42 PMDec 1, 12:00 AM
    226130

    OptionProbability

    Microsoft

    Alphabet (Google)

    NVIDIA

    Apple

    Amazon

    TSMC

    Broadcom

    Saudi Aramco

    Meta Platforms (Facebook)

    SpaceX

    Tesla

    Berkshire Hathaway

    Walmart

    Eli Lilly

    JPMorgan Chase

    Visa

    Tencent

    Oracle

    United Health

    Novo Nordisk

    97

    97

    97

    96

    93

    76

    75

    63

    60

    57

    56

    21

    20

    19

    16

    9

    8

    7

    3

    2

    Which major product will META kill first?

    Mar 20, 4:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    293066

    OptionProbability

    Threads

    WhatsApp

    Messenger

    Facebook

    Instagram

    84

    9

    3

    2

    2

    Manifold Meta-Futarchy 2026

    May 2, 11:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    162698

    OptionProbability

    https://manifold.markets/Stralor/manifold-the-site-2026-prop-bets

    https://manifold.markets/ian/we-sell-2x-the-boosts-if-a-boost-gi

    https://manifold.markets/Stralor/how-much-mana-revenue-will-manifold

    36

    12

    8

    Which cases brought by or maintained by the federal government will be dropped during the Trump presidency?

    Dec 9, 2:25 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    82247

    OptionProbability

    KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC (ban on prediction markets for elections)

    United States v. Sam Bankman-Fried

    Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (PredictIt Case)

    Ryan v. FTC (Non-compete ban case)

    U.S. and Plaintiff States v. Google LLC (Google antitrust case)

    Federal Trade Commission, et al. v. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amazon antitrust case)

    U.S and Plaintiff States v. Apple Inc. (Apple antitrust case)

    United States v. Binance Holdings (charges against Binance for iolating several laws, including the Bank Secrecy Act, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the Commodity Exchange Act)

    Federal Trade Commission v. Microsoft Corp. and Activision Blizzard, Inc (Attempt to block Microsoft's merger/acquisition of Activision Blizzard)

    United States v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Meta antitrust case)

    Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC (E-cigarette supreme court case)

    TikTok Inc. v. Merrick Garland (TikTok Ban)

    United States v. Skrmetti (ban on transgender health care for minors)

    100

    58

    50

    50

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    31

    3

    0

    0

    Which publicly traded US companies will do a purely-LLM-performance-based layoff in 2026?

    Feb 27, 3:47 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    10882

    OptionProbability

    Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)

    Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)

    Google/Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)

    Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

    31

    26

    19

    15

    Will Mark Zuckerberg cease to be CEO of Meta before 2030?

    Nov 1, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    40.39%chance
    14535

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1143

    852

    Will AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?

    Jan 1, 1:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    96.5%chance
    6435

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    525

    19

    Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

    Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM
    72%chance
    14346

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1091

    949

    Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

    Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    11%chance
    8250

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    284

    35

    Which of the following companies will be in the top 20 companies in the world by market cap on Jan 1st 2050?

    Jan 28, 4:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    8141

    OptionProbability

    Microsoft

    Alphabet (Google)

    TSMC

    NVIDIA

    Apple

    Samsung Electronics

    ASML Holding

    Tesla

    Amazon

    Tencent

    Broadcom

    Alibaba

    BYD Company

    Saudi Aramco

    Meta Platforms (Facebook)

    Reliance Industries

    Berkshire Hathaway

    Exxon Mobil

    Mastercard

    Johnson & Johnson

    JPMorgan Chase

    UnitedHealth Group

    Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

    Visa

    Walmart

    60

    55

    55

    55

    52

    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    45

    45

    41

    41

    40

    40

    38

    38

    38

    31

    31

    Meta Platforms Inc. (META)

    Apr 6, 1:17 AMApr 6, 3:59 AM
    367

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    94

    84

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