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Prediction markets for ML
Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?
Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM
37.29%chance
2515523
OptionVotes
1146
437
AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?
Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
328618
OptionProbability
86
86
78
75
14
0
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
38.11%chance
796746
OptionVotes
1655
575
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
Mar 5, 8:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
83.04%chance
411582
OptionVotes
997
977
OptionProbability
48
17
14
11
10
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
59.72%chance
31917
OptionVotes
1081
822
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
65.12%chance
28746
OptionVotes
1092
763
Will "You should go to ML conferences" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 28, 7:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
8.93%chance
3550
OptionVotes
1546
932
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
Nov 7, 9:09 PMNov 15, 7:59 AM
8334
OptionProbability
34
20
18
15
12
OptionProbability
59
14
14
14
Will a standardized category theory language for ML models emerge by end of 2025?
Apr 9, 12:30 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
3.12%chance
622
OptionVotes
101
65
Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?
Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
59.59%chance
211
OptionVotes
101
81
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