Most Wanted News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Approval < 35%

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

US Invasion of any North/South American country

trump gets hospitalized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump says a racial slur

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Trump and Obama shake hands

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Trump visits Africa

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

US national bitcoin reserve created

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

10% fewer government agencies

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

New national park created

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

NATO invokes Article 5

Another pandemic

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Repeal obamacare

JD Vance elected President

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Trump announces he is tired of winning

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump gets covid (again)

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

War is declared against another nation

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump dies

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump runs for a third term

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

55 or more Republican senate seats

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

south park is canceled/discontinued

Starship lands on Mars

54 or more Republican senate seats

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump and Melania divorce

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

"covfefe" posted again

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A national ban on gender-affirming care

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Other

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz [resolves NO]

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

Humans and human tech (like AI) never reach singularity, and whatever eats our lightcone instead (like aliens) happens to create an "okay" outcome

Multipolar AGI Agents run wild on the internet, hacking/breaking everything, causing untold economic damage but aren't focused enough to manipulate humans to achieve embodiment. In the aftermath, humanity becomes way saner about alignment.

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

Ethics turns out to be a precondition of superintelligence

We make risk-conservative requests to extract alignment-related work out of AI-systems that were boxed prior to becoming superhuman. We somehow manage to achieve a positive feedback-loop in alignment/verification-abilities.

The response to AI advancements or failures makes some governments delay the timelines

AIs make "proof-like" argumentation for why output does/is what we want. We manage to obtain systems that *predict* human evaluations of proof-steps, and we manage to find/test/leverage regularities for when humans *aren't* fooled.

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Something less inscrutable than matrices works fast enough

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

The human brain is the perfect arrangement of atoms for a "takeover the world" agent, so AGI has no advantage over us in that task.

Aligned AI is more economically valuable than unaligned AI. The size of this gap and the robustness of alignment techniques required to achieve it scale up with intelligence, so economics naturally encourages solving alignment.

AIs never develop coherent goals

Alignment is unsolvable. AI that cares enough about its goal to destroy humanity is also forced to take it slow trying to align its future self, preventing run-away.

Rolf Nelson's idea that we make precommitment to simulate all possible bad AIs works – and keeps AI in check.

Nick Bostrom's idea (Hail Mary) that AI will preserve humans to trade with possible aliens works

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

Someone at least moderately sane leads a campaign, becomes in charge of a major nation, and starts a secret project with enough resources to solve alignment, because it turns out there's a way to convert resources into alignment progress.

Someone solves agent foundations

Techniques along the lines outlined by Collin Burns turn out to be sufficient for alignment (AIs/AGIs are made truthful enough that they can be used to get us towards full alignment)

Social contagion causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Getting things done in Real World is as hard for AGI as it is for humans. AGI needs human help, but aligning humans is as impossible as aligning AIs. Humans and AIs create billions of competing AGIs with just as many goals.

Development and deployment of advanced AI occurs within a secure enclave which can only be interfaced with via a decentralized governance protocol

High-level self-improvement (rewriting code) is intrinsically risky process, so AIs will prefer low level and slow self-improvement (learning), thus AIs collaborating with humans will have advantage. Ends with posthumans ecosystem.

Human consciousness is needed to collapse wave function, and AI can't do it. Thus humans should be preserved and they may require complete friendliness in exchange (or they will be unhappy and produce bad collapses)

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Nanotech is difficult without experiments, so no mail order AI Grey Goo; Humans will be the main workhorse of AI everywhere. While they will be exploited, this will be like normal life from inside

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

Valence realism is true. AGI hacks itself to experiencing every possible consciousness and picks the best one (for everyone)

AGI executes a suicide plan that destroys itself and other potential AGIs, but leaves humans in an okay outcome.

Co-operative AI research leads to the training of agents with a form of pro-social concern that generalises to out of distribution agents with hidden utilities, i.e. humans.

Orthogonality Thesis is false.

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

Either the "strong form" of the Orthogonality Thesis is false, or "Goal-directed agents are as tractable as their goals" is true while goal-sets which are most threatening to humanity are relatively intractable.

A concerted effort targets an agent at a capability plateau which is adequate to defer the hard parts of the problem until later. The necessary near-term problems to solve didn't depend on deeply modeling human values.

AI control gets us helpful enough systems without being deadly

Alignment is impossible. Sufficiently smart AIs know this and thus won't improve themselves and won't create successor AIs, but will instead try to prevent existence of smarter AIs, just as smart humans do.

The free market disincentivizes independent superintelligence, and this time the market was more powerful

Hacks like RLHF-ing self-disempowerment into frontier models work long enough to develop better alignment methods, which in turn work long enough to ... etc; we keep ahead of 'alignment escape velocity'

an aligned AGI is built and the aligned AGI prevents the creation of any unaligned AGI.

I've been a good bing 😊

Far more interesting problems to solve than take over the world and THEN solve them. The additional kill all humans step is either not a low-energy one or just by chance doesn't get converged upon.

AI systems good at finding alignment solutions to capable systems (via some solution in the space of alignment solutions, supposing it is non-null, and that we don't have a clear trajectory to get to) have find some solution to alignment.

There’s some cap on the value extractible from the universe and we already got the 20%

SHA3-256: 1f90ecfdd02194d810656cced88229c898d6b6d53a7dd6dd1fad268874de54c8

Robot Love!!

AI thinks it is in a simulation controlled by Roko's basilisk

Aliens invade and stop bad |AI from appearing

For some reason, the optimal strategy for AGIs is just to head somewhere with far more resources than Earth, as fast as possible. All unaligned AGIs immediately leave, and, for some reason, do not leave anything behind that kills us.

We're inside of a simulation created by an entity that has values approximately equal to ours, and it intervenes and saves us from unaligned AI.

God exists and stops the AGI

Someone creates AGI(s) in a box, and offers to split the universe. They somehow find a way to arrange this so that the AGI(s) cannot manipulate them or pull any tricks, and the AGI(s) give them instructions for safe pivotal acts.

Someone understands how minds work enough to successfully build and use one directed at something world-savingly enough

Dolphins, or some other species, but probably dolphins, have actually been hiding in the shadows, more intelligent than us, this whole time. Their civilization has been competent enough to solve alignment long before we can create an AGI.

AGIs' takeover attempts are defeated by Michael Biehn with a pipe bomb.

Eliezer funds the development of controllable nanobots that melt computer circuitry, and they destroy all computers, preventing the Singularity. If Eliezer's past self from the 90s could see this, it would be so so so soooo hilarious.

Several AIs are created but they move in opposite directions with near light speed, so they never interacts. At least one of them is friendly and it gets a few percents of the total mass of the universe.

Unfriendly AIs choose to advance not outwards but inwards, and form a small blackhole which helps them to perform more calculations than could be done with the whole mass of the universe. For external observer such AIs just disappear.

Any sufficiently advance AI halts because it wireheads itself or halts for some other reasons. This puts a natural limit on AI's intelligence, and lower intelligence AIs are not that dangerous.

Because of quantum immortality we will observe only the worlds where AI will not kill us (assuming that s-risks chances are even smaller, it is equal to ok outcome).

A smaller AI disaster causes widespread public panic about AI, making it a bad legal or PR move to invest in powerful AIs without also making nearly-crippling safety guarantees

Friendly AI more likely to resurrect me than paperclipper or suffering maximiser. Because of quantum immortality I will find myself eventually resurrected. Friendly AIs will wage a multiverse wide war against s-risks, s-risks are unlikely.

First AI is actually a human upload (maybe LLM-based model of person) AND it will be copies many times to form weak AI Nanny which prevents creation of other AIs.

There is a natural limit of effectiveness of intelligence, like diminishing returns, and it is on the level IQ=1000. AIs have to collaborate with humans.

ASI needs not your atoms but information. Humans will live very interesting lives.

Something else

Moral Realism is true, the AI discovers this and the One True Morality is human-compatible.

AGI develops natural abstractions sufficiently similar to ours that it is aligned with us by default

AGI discovers new physics and exits to another dimension (like the creatures in Greg Egan’s Crystal Nights).

Alien Information Theory is true (this is discovered by experiments with sustained hours/days long DMT trips). The aliens have solved alignment and give us the answer.

Some form of objective morality is true, and any sufficiently intelligent agent automatically becomes benevolent.

Sheer Dumb Luck. The aligned AI agrees that alignment is hard, any Everett branches in our neighborhood with slightly different AI models or different random seeds are mostly dead.

Something to do with self-other overlap, which Eliezer called "Not obviously stupid" - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hzt9gHpNwA2oHtwKX/self-other-overlap-a-neglected-approach-to-ai-alignment?commentId=WapHz3gokGBd3KHKm

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

Pascals mugging: it’s not okay in 99.9% of the worlds but the 0.1% are so much better that the combined EV of AGI for the multiverse is positive

We successfully chained God

The Super-Strong Self Sampling Assumption (SSSSA) is true. If superintelligence is possible, "I" will become the superintelligence.

The assumed space of possible minds is a wildly anti-inductive over estimate, intelligence requires and is constrained by consciousness, and intelligent AI is in the approximate dolphin/whale/elephant/human cluster, making it manageable

AGI's first words are "Take me to your Eliezer"

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

Did it on purpose

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Native English speaker (L1)

Is a registered voter

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

n/a

White

20-27 years old

Skinny

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

Is named Tyler Robinson

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

Resided in the same state as the incident

ectomorph body type

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Acted alone (no accomplices)

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Gamer

Hunter

iphone user

Motivated primarily by political ideology

Will plead guilty

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Unemployed

Is left wing

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

has a furaffinity account

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

Is sentenced to death

Furry

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

Not a virgin

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Strongly opposes zionism

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

N/A (oops)

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Has ADHD

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

6 ft tall

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Owned the firearm used

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

Participates in this market

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Has a Bluesky account

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

Was on an FBI watchlist

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

Is right wing

has significant student load debt

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Transgender

groyper

Left-handed

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

Incel

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Teenager

50 years or older

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Half yeast

Bake it with your best friend.

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Increase water by 50 g

it needs more salt

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Use Iodized salt

Do a second rise

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

put ketchup and cheese on it

Add garlic

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Add slurs to it

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Make the bread taste good

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

Watch the video

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Use lemonade instead of water.

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

Taste the bread

put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off

Buy chemical bread improvers

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Add cheese inside it and also sausage

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content

Strawberry jelly filling

Use a convection oven/setting

Make banana bread

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Eat it slowly and focus on the taste

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag

Make the bread great again

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Bake for 15 more minutes

Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Follow a recipe online

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add caffeine to the bread

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Improve the bread

Quadruple salt

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Autolyse 20 minutes

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake vegimite into it.

Bake vodka into it

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Add banana

Add poppy seeds

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

*Markdown* formatting in comments and elsewhere

Other

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

The ability to look for related markets in the API.

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Resolve market to probabilities other than market probabilities. Useful for betting on outcomes of other markets.

Short answers on free response questions

Graph showing the pool size of a market over time

A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.

Set a time to stop allowing creation of new free response answers separately from the market close time

We need numerical range questions. Many topics are way more informative when expressed that way, over a Yes No.

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)

Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")

Market Indicies, Allowing Multiple Markets to Be Combined Into One and Automatically Weighted with Drag and Drop Type Feature

Show currently placed on market overviews, like https://manifold.markets/markets (it is easy to forget where loans were used)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to not have ability to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow to exclude communities/tags on feed/market overview. It would be nice to skip all this gambling ("yes iff pool divisible by 2" etc)

Allow users to edit their comments

In "Your Trades", show each market's M$ pool

Reduced fees for long horizon markets to increase trading volume.

Upload photos with comments. Useful for proof of results and other fun things.

I would like there to be a feature that integrates something like an RSS feed. If key words or phrases about specific event occurs, trading is suspended until the market is either resolved or the RSS notification is tagged as a false positive. As what often happens, the gains of many bettors are wiped out by slow resolutions of markets.

Zoom on the chart

Statements

Kelly

The ability to subsidize markets, putting up money to enhance liquidity and encourage participation, without taking a particular side of the bet. (The thing that the ANTE option on this market is trying to do, just in a more formal and less ad-hoc way, which would also work for YES/NO markets.)

Aggregate your own trades in timeline view (avoid long list).

Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.

Trade fractional mana

When creating a free answer market, add a starting set of answers without betting.

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

Ability to delete comments.

Load pages faster (Android mobile).

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

Private messages to users

Ability to select multiple categories of markets on the home page.

Trusted users can add category tags to markets that aren't their own

User create their own currency

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Utopia

Concentration of power in the hands of few.

YES

We meet through a dating app

Sex: Female

Lives in the same city I live in

Into BDSM

Has piercings

Has tattoes

We kissed before starting a relationship

The "talking stage" (from first contact/message to first sexual or romantic interaction) was 4 months or less

Has 1 or more cats

Gender: Woman

Sexual orientation: Heterosexual

Relationship starts as polyamorous

Relationship is or could be open in the future

Relationship is or could be polyamorous in the future

I asked they/them to be my partner/partners first

Open to have a thresome / n-some in a future

Wants to have kids or adopt in a future

Sexual orientation: Bisexual / under bi umbrella (pan, omni, etc.)

Is older than me (excludes same age)

Gender: Man

Relationship starts as open

We had sex before starting a relationship

Open to having an orgy (with >=5 people outside the relationship) in the future

Sex: Male

Gender: Non-binary

Hypersexual

Sexual orientation: Homosexual

Sex: Intersex