My News

Microsoft Unveils Handheld Xbox ROG Ally, Escalating Battle With Nintendo Switch

3 days ago

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.42%chance

264484823

OptionVotes

YES

10407

7511

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Aug 16, 1:44 AMJun 17, 6:59 AM

65.95%chance

196143881

OptionVotes

YES

156828

36298

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

Dec 29, 5:16 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

121111571

OptionProbability

Ufo361

Paula Hartmann

Bonez MC

Samra

Lil Peep

Capital Bra

Juice WRLD

Gzuz

makko

Other

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

16624

6806

Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.41%chance

4350042

OptionVotes

YES

20781

8355

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.03%chance

17538975

OptionVotes

YES

11839

8819

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Apr 24, 11:26 PMApr 24, 11:20 PM

31.4%chance

187419

OptionVotes

YES

14782

6765

Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?

Aug 22, 11:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.56%chance

336232

OptionVotes

YES

10058

9942

Will my 70yo male relative lose 10 lbs in 2 months with Evolv GLP-1?

Aug 25, 12:37 AMOct 26, 12:29 AM

65.36%chance

84400

OptionVotes

YES

13737

7280

what is my favorite subject

Apr 5, 8:03 AMApr 5, 8:02 AM

OptionProbability

History

Science

Hindi

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

Oct 21, 4:13 PMApr 16, 8:59 PM

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Microsoft Unveils Handheld Xbox ROG Ally, Escalating Battle With Nintendo Switch
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Prediction markets for My

Prediction markets for My

Prediction markets for My

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?

Who will be my most Streamed Spotify Artist 2025?

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Will my Nucleus Genomics DNA test reveal me to be above 5% jewish?

Will I have a baby with my decade-younger boyfriend by 2029?

Will my 70yo male relative lose 10 lbs in 2 months with Evolv GLP-1?

what is my favorite subject

based on my taste in music, recommend to me an album, any album that gets over 10 points resolves to YES

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