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Prediction markets for National
Will the National Guard kill at least 10 protestors by end of 2026?
Apr 28, 7:33 PMJan 1, 8:29 PM
20.42%chance
2919051
OptionVotes
19742
5065
OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030
Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
34.31%chance
5717669
OptionVotes
13461
7504
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.44%chance
7412334
OptionVotes
1927
1123
Will messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
Jun 23, 7:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13.97%chance
5212270
OptionVotes
19342
7418
OptionVotes
18343
5452
Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
98274
OptionProbability
78
64
56
50
49
46
39
39
30
25
21
19
Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027
Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.07%chance
1298015
OptionVotes
1846
1470
Will Palestine be fully recognized as a United Nations member state by the end of 2027?
Apr 18, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
12.62%chance
404489
OptionVotes
3475
1633
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
44.8%chance
302531
OptionVotes
1110
901
Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?
Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
17.9%chance
161682
OptionVotes
2558
610
Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)
Feb 26, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.86%chance
361150
OptionVotes
2183
1893
Which country will next change its national electrical frequency after 2025?
Aug 22, 11:27 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
25
25
25
25
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