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Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

1 year ago

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

986

955

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8819732

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

New York v Trump 2024

Tigray War

The Epstein Files

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

Will Fox News settle in their defamation lawsuit with Smartmatic before going to trial?

Apr 18, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.43%chance

414728

OptionVotes

YES

1013

876

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?

Dec 29, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.46%chance

122508

OptionVotes

YES

1711

584

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.71%chance

271960

OptionVotes

YES

1109

881

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

82.44%chance

341758

OptionVotes

YES

1001

894

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.72%chance

111534

OptionVotes

YES

2267

441

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

1230

913

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.36%chance

12934

OptionVotes

YES

1505

665

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

65.83%chance

5722

OptionVotes

YES

1388

721

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

1292

908

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Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
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Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings
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1 year ago

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Prediction markets for News

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Prediction markets for News

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

Will Fox News settle in their defamation lawsuit with Smartmatic before going to trial?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Latest stories

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