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Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings

6 months ago

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

986

955

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

Will Fox News settle in their defamation lawsuit with Smartmatic before going to trial?

Apr 18, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.43%chance

414728

OptionVotes

YES

1013

876

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.31%chance

93929

OptionVotes

YES

1134

954

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.01%chance

261841

OptionVotes

YES

1017

975

Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?

Dec 29, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.85%chance

81789

OptionVotes

YES

1610

621

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

83.04%chance

331727

OptionVotes

YES

995

926

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

1230

913

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM

65.83%chance

5722

OptionVotes

YES

1388

721

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Dec 14, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.59%chance

7624

OptionVotes

YES

1266

790

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19.26%chance

12561

OptionVotes

YES

1292

908

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

5195

OptionVotes

YES

1098

911

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Aug 14, 2025
Aug 14, 2025
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Grok AI App Surpasses Google, Ranks 5th Overall and 2nd in Productivity Globally with 1.25M Ratings
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6 months ago

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Prediction markets for News

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Prediction markets for News

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

Will Fox News settle in their defamation lawsuit with Smartmatic before going to trial?

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?

Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?

Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?

Latest stories

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