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Prediction markets for News
Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?
Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.8%chance
5323348
OptionVotes
986
955
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM
8519498
OptionProbability
98
97
88
82
82
82
78
75
63
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
Will Fox News settle in their defamation lawsuit with Smartmatic before going to trial?
Apr 18, 10:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
53.43%chance
414728
OptionVotes
1013
876
Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?
Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
81.31%chance
93929
OptionVotes
1134
954
Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
Sep 7, 1:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
47.01%chance
261841
OptionVotes
1017
975
Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?
Dec 29, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.85%chance
81789
OptionVotes
1610
621
If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?
Jan 20, 6:40 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
83.04%chance
331727
OptionVotes
995
926
Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)
Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM
21.81%chance
251285
OptionVotes
1230
913
News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026
Jan 2, 7:48 AMJan 14, 7:59 AM
65.83%chance
5722
OptionVotes
1388
721
OptionVotes
1316
760
Will a Longtermist act of pre-emptive violence be reported by multiple credible news sources by 1st Jan 2028?
Aug 11, 10:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
19.26%chance
12561
OptionVotes
1292
908
Bari Weiss remains CBS News editor-in-chief through 2026?
Oct 22, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.64%chance
5195
OptionVotes
1098
911
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