OptionVotes
YES
NO
50207
800
1042
959
1573
636
1051
957
248
40
317
90
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Other
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
33
32
24
12
147
68
139
72
186
120
100
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