OptionVotes
YES
NO
50171
801
1142
875
2026
494
1051
957
248
40
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Other
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
31
30
9
317
90
132
76
186
120
100
110
91
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