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Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?
Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
31%chance
1819062
OptionVotes
1492
670
Will Google provide security and Android version updates for the Pixel 8 and Pixel 8 Pro until October 2030?
Oct 7, 5:31 AMOct 1, 1:59 PM
79.26%chance
3812236
OptionVotes
1764
639
OptionProbability
95
2
1
1
1
1
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2026?
Jun 9, 10:52 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
7.2%chance
292796
OptionVotes
1845
25
Will people be wearing the Apple Vision Pro in public in London by the end of 2027?
Jun 9, 10:54 AMDec 20, 11:59 PM
9.24%chance
181442
OptionVotes
1686
26
OptionProbability
88
8
4
Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
70.23%chance
16261
OptionVotes
994
994
Will free Gemini app users get access to Gemini 4 Argon by November 15, 2026?
Oct 15, 9:55 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM
5.24%chance
5170
OptionVotes
268
84
Will Apple announce any camera-equipped AI wearable before 2027?
May 9, 11:11 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM
20.35%chance
5120
OptionVotes
178
68
Did either of the Bondi shooters ever attend a pro-Palestine protest?
Mar 1, 12:10 PMDec 20, 11:59 PM
39%chance
5105
OptionVotes
125
80
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?
Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33
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