Notes News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Notes
Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.23%chance
4751212
OptionVotes
2018
481
Will the next President of the United States die in an office? [Mod Note: Pun Trap]
May 22, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15%chance
17530283
OptionVotes
3400
1415
Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]
Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM
42.19%chance
206441
OptionVotes
12038
8179
Will the new TikTok Notes app be more popular than Instagram by the end of 2025?
Mar 13, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
4.5%chance
253197
OptionVotes
3724
685
Will AI be mentioned in a suicide note before 2028 and reported on the by the media
Apr 3, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.97%chance
23769
OptionVotes
1357
890
OptionVotes
1277
880
Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?
Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.12%chance
7195
OptionVotes
1172
853
Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be revealed by the end of 2030?
Jun 20, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
43.82%chance
223
OptionVotes
113
88
Will "Research Notes: Running Claude 3.7, Gemini 2...." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 23, 8:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo by the end of 2028?
Jun 20, 6:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
110
OptionVotes
110
91
Will the writer of Death Note (Tsugumi Ohba) be confirmed to be Hiroshi Gamo before he dies?
Jun 20, 6:02 PMJun 21, 6:02 PM
47.56%chance
15
OptionVotes
105
95
Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Latest stories
Latest stories