Now Playing News

NO

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

A new supreme court justice appointed

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Fair elections in 2028

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

trump gets hospitalized

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

Government shutdown

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

USA experiences a recession.

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Joe Biden dies

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

John Bolton indicted

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

The department of education gets desolved

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

New national park created

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Approval < 35%

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

JD Vance elected President

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Approval < 25%

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump and Obama shake hands

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump runs for a third term

Another pandemic

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump says a racial slur

Trump dies

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump gets shot

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Trump and Melania divorce

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

A major war in Asia occurs

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

10% fewer government agencies

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

"covfefe" posted again

Cannabis is federally legalized

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

NO

Trump will be the POTUS

FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025

At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher

1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned

Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities

Elon removed as doge head

Pope dies

Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court

Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known

Famous global brand goes through a rebranding

Hollow Knight Silk song released

GPT 5 releases

Avatar: Fire and Ash released

Russia retains de facto control over Crimea

This whole market gets more than 300 traders

King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025

2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US

LEMMiNO releases a new video

Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025

FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025

Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection

EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida

In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved

Biden gets hospitalised

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%

Early general elections in Pakistan

At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office

MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair

Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)

T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions

Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025

Ali Khamenei assassisnated

Mike Johnson is not Speaker

Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025

Ali Khamenei dies a natural death

In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth

Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025

There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025

Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination

Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives

Dodgers win World Series

Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)

In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence

Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)

Californian independence gains enough signatures

At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA

Phillies win the World Series

Biden dies

Harry and Meghan divorce

Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations

2025 hotter then 2024

A country leaves NATO

Putin dies

Congress repeals any tariff

Chuck Schumer resigns

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%

Ukraine internal coup attempt

Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19

Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series

Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth

China annexes Taiwan

Filibuster abolished

Zelensky Assassinated

Article 5 of NATO invoked

After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved

Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025

OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released

FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it

Kate and William divorce

Sam Altman gets fired again

At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA

Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt

Putin assassinated

NATO at war with Russia

Trump assassinated

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%

US-China war

A nuclear bomb explodes

2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"

US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025

United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth

One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model

A country leaves the EU

The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release

USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement

Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds

LK99 replicates at last

Greenland Joins USA

End of the world by celery

Ukraine joins NATO

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30

A US state secedes from the union

51st US State

Peter Turkson elected Pope

GTA 6 releases

Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero

Harris will be the POTUS

Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025

MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025

Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025

Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31

Francis is always Pope

New pope takes name "Francis"

First papal conclave >= 10 ballots

Ron Weasley is a redhead

Harry Potter is white

Fred and George are twins irl

Snape is black

At least one named character from the book has their race changed

Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British

A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)

Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"

McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)

Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him

Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)

Malfoy has white blonde hair

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode

There’s a scene set before Harry is born

Premieres in 2027

JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer

The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured

Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes

Peeves is a reoccurring character

Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen

It's woke

An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2

The Quibbler is shown or mentioned

Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"

A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry

mandrake root on screen

80% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented

Hermione is white

A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen

A house elf is shown on screen

Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot

Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name

Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen

Arthur Weasley is shown on screen

The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word

An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show

It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year

At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped

Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits

Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures

Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode

Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode

Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1

It ends on a cliff hanger

The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying

An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen

The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.

Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s

"Voldemort" has a silent "t"

Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings

90% or higher on rotten tomatoes

Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3

At least one of the actors is transgender

Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting

VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE

Dobby makes an appearance

Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1

Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)

We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts

set in 2025

Premieres in 2026

Awkwafina is cast in the show

Zendaya is cast in the show

set in the 2020s

We get AGI before it premieres

JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance

Voldemort is a woman

Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability

Keir Starmer is in it

Features an explicitly transgender character

There will be seven CGI dwarves

Hermione is Indian

Hermione is black

Smartphone shown within Hogwarts

Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity

Gandalf is black

Fred and George have the same actor

HPMOR is referenced

Hagrid is black

One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.

Yudkowsky makes an appearance

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

Beat a 1900+ rated player

Beat a 2000+ rated player

Play at least 40 FIDE-rated games

Qualify for the national championship

Solve 2000+ puzzles

Have a TPR of 2100+ in a single tournament (at least 4 rounds)

Average TPR of 2000+ for the year

Qualify for the 2026 Olympiad team

Make the bread taste good

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Add 50g honey

Watch the video

Autolyse 20 minutes

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Improve the bread

it needs more salt

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Use 50% whole grain flour

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Toast the bread

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Add 50g sugar

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Increase water by 50 g

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Swap 200ml water for milk

Bake it with your best friend.

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Replace salt with sugar

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Add a pinch of sugar

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread great again

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Replace flour with flowers

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Bake vodka into it

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Bake for 5 more minutes

Add 2g? of baking soda

Let dough sit 48 hrs

put butter into it

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Half yeast

Add a tablespoon of sugar

Bake one more minute

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Play classical music while baking

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Quadruple salt

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake vegimite into it.

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Double oven temperature

Halve oven temperature

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Bake in rectangular tin

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

It will be released first in 2025

In mid 2026 there wil lbe more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

It will have four playable characters on release

All current cards for at least one character will be playable

NO

YES

Explain "Krantz" thoroughly enough on the internet, that the idea itself becomes alive and takes over the world.

Solve education

Other

Travel to the Network State School

Go to LessOnline and Manifest

Go to Contact in the Desert.

Go to the Monroe Institute.

Work for society library.

Focus on finding a life partner

Recieve a grant to create an open-source home school program where parents and kids work collectively to create lessons and earn crypto credentials.

Start a podcast with livestream forecasting and collective reasoning.

Go on Lex Fridman and explain how to solve the control problem by solving education.

Publish an alignment plan

Find a new job

Travel to a new country

Learn a new language

Go on Liv Boeree's Win/Win podcast and explain how to kill Moloch by solving the control problem, by solving education.

Join or start an intentional living community of the rationalist variety.

Write a book

Code a indie video game

Start a religion that worships math, logic and constitutions of propositions as mechanisms that optimize communication, which is good. A Kant cult.

Run for political office as an open source Manchurian candidate that acts in accordance with how the network state votes.

Play poker professionally.