OptionVotes
YES
NO
5194
3628
OptionProbability
Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)
Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)
A major war in Asia occurs
Second Muslim ban
Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot
Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people
Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA
$TSLA reaches $400 a share
price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe
Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch
RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position
Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)
Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states
Federal employees are ordered to go to work
Government shutdown
A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken
Trump declassifies JFK files
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
John Bolton indicted
A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported
Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture
At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE
"The New Norm" ends
New James Bond actor is presented
Fair elections in 2028
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
Approval < 35%
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
A new supreme court justice appointed
doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil
A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
Vances have another kid
USA experiences a recession.
US Invasion of any North/South American country
trump gets hospitalized
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
N/A this please, pressed by mistake
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES
New
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
McDonald's reopens in Russia
Dow rises above 65,000
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
BTC falls below $38,000
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Trump says a racial slur
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Trump and Obama shake hands
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)
Trump visits Africa
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
US national bitcoin reserve created
Tesla
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
Joe Biden dies
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
10% fewer government agencies
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
New national park created
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
Constitutional Amendment
NATO invokes Article 5
Another pandemic
The department of education gets desolved
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Repeal obamacare
JD Vance elected President
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
Trump announces he is tired of winning
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
American Manned Lunar Landing
Trump gets covid (again)
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump gets shot
Approval < 25%
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
War is declared against another nation
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
Trump dies
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Laura Loomer gets any government role
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Trump runs for a third term
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
55 or more Republican senate seats
Record level unemployment
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
south park is canceled/discontinued
Starship lands on Mars
54 or more Republican senate seats
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination
Trump is assassinated
Cannabis is federally legalized
Trump and Melania divorce
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
SpaceX is nationalized
Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
"covfefe" posted again
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A national ban on gender-affirming care
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Constitutional Amendment
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Major Yellowstone caldera scare
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Anthony Fauci is convicted
New US national anthem
Ann Selzer arrested
Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
A hurricane will be nuked
Jimmy Carter dies
Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026
Matt Gaetz is rejected by the Senate for Attorney General, then DeSantis appoints him to Rubio's vacated Senate seat
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0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2901
2279
OptionProbability
It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)
Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release
In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1
The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)
All current cards for at least one character will be playable
It will be released first in 2024
It will be released first in 2025
There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20
It will have four playable characters on release
100
100
95
22
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Snape is black
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Fred and George are twins irl
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
Premieres in 2026
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Malfoy has white blonde hair
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Peeves is a reoccurring character
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
It's woke
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
mandrake root on screen
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
A house elf is shown on screen
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
Premieres on strongly symbolic date (like July 31, 21.12)
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
It ends on a cliff hanger
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
Dobby makes an appearance
At least one of the actors is transgender
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
Hermione is Indian
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Features an explicitly transgender character
Hermione is white
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
actor in the show wins an Emmy for acting
Premieres in 2027
Zendaya is cast in the show
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Keir Starmer is in it
set in 2025
set in the 2020s
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
We get AGI before it premieres
Hagrid is black
Gandalf is black
Adolf Hitler is mentioned
Fred and George have the same actor
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
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1
OptionProbability
The Manifold Logo
“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri
Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott
Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott
“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS
“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri
“Calibrated measures” - by andri
“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott
“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri
“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri
100
100
83
65
64
51
46
36
33
13
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add garlic
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Add slurs to it
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Strawberry jelly filling
Use a convection oven/setting
Make banana bread
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
1225
816
OptionProbability
A team will complete a triple play
A manager will be ejected 5+ times in one season
A player will hit for the cycle
A player will record 40+ saves
A team will lose 100+ games
A team will record a combined no-hitter
A pitcher will record 10+ strikeouts in three consecutive starts
A player will record 200+ hits
A player will record 3+ intentional walks in one game
A player will pitch a no hitter
A player will record 50+ stolen bases
A team will have 3 players with 30+ home runs
The Dodgers will 3-peat
A player will record a 30-game hitting streak
A player will hit 4+ home runs in a single game
A player will have a 40/40 season
A team will win 110+ regular season games
A player will hit > 62 homeruns
A player will pitch a perfect game
A player will record 300+ strikeouts
A player will record a .400+ batting average
A player will hit for the triple crown
A player will record 100+ extra-base hits
90
90
87
82
65
57
52
48
48
46
44
43
31
24
23
18
17
10
10
10
10
10
10
OptionProbability
Australia Win
Whitewash
Series is played in Aussie Winter
Darwin gets a Test
Series is cancelled
Series is postponed to 2027
Drawn Series
79
66
62
50
50
50
4
OptionProbability
LeBron’s NBA (playing) career
Steelers’ non-losing season streak
50
50
OptionProbability
Las Vegas (including Paradise)
Sacramento (including West Sacramento)
Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area
Somewhere else in California
Somewhere else outside California
20
20
20
20
20

