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Top stories

OpenAI Debuts gpt-realtime Voice Model as Realtime API Enters General Availability

OpenAI Debuts gpt-realtime Voice Model as Realtime API Enters General Availability

Authors

32

1 year ago

Sapient’s 27-Million-Parameter AI Surpasses ChatGPT in Key Reasoning Test

Sapient’s 27-Million-Parameter AI Surpasses ChatGPT in Key Reasoning Test

Authors

16

1 year ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Authors

10

1 year ago

FSU Study Finds ChatGPT Buzzwords Seeping Into Everyday Speech

Authors

23

1 year ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

1 year ago

Experts Warn ‘AI Psychosis’ Risk as Teens Turn to Chatbot Therapy

Authors

15

1 year ago

Y Combinator-Backed Prompting Company Launches to Put Brands Inside ChatGPT

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for OpenAI

OpenAI IPO Market Cap (MNX)

Sep 11, 11:01 PM

585488560

What will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 4:47 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

95233914

OptionProbability

Other

$190-200B

$170-180B

$180-190B

$200-210B

$210-220B

$160-170B

$220-230B

$150-160B

$230-240B

$240-250B

$250-260B

$260-270B

$130-140B

$140-150B

$270-280B

$280-290B

$290-300B

$110-120B

$120-130B

<$40B

$50-60B

$60-70B

$70-80B

$80-90B

$90-100B

$100-110B

$40-50B

10

8

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.35%chance

30789202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39476

610

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

10975946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23112

2751

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Jan 31, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.05%chance

13446712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13288

7276

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.26%chance

7024069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14460

7017

OPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 2027

May 30, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.61%chance

1723452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10891

3200

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.75%chance

13713512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

698

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.78%chance

10812066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3025

1894

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

10.48%chance

7310686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6576

1130

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

4110178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

486

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