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Top stories

OpenAI Debuts gpt-realtime Voice Model as Realtime API Enters General Availability

OpenAI Debuts gpt-realtime Voice Model as Realtime API Enters General Availability

Authors

32

3 months ago

Sapient’s 27-Million-Parameter AI Surpasses ChatGPT in Key Reasoning Test

Sapient’s 27-Million-Parameter AI Surpasses ChatGPT in Key Reasoning Test

Authors

16

3 months ago

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Microsoft Debuts Home-Grown AI Models, Testing Independence From OpenAI

Authors

10

3 months ago

FSU Study Finds ChatGPT Buzzwords Seeping Into Everyday Speech

Authors

23

3 months ago

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

3 months ago

Experts Warn ‘AI Psychosis’ Risk as Teens Turn to Chatbot Therapy

Authors

15

3 months ago

Y Combinator-Backed Prompting Company Launches to Put Brands Inside ChatGPT

Authors

3

3 months ago

Prediction Markets

University of Chicago Finds AI Matches Prediction Market Accuracy

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for OpenAI

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1.88%chance

18141118911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102031

3309

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.02%chance

77947790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

308918

47852

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.14%chance

154150007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

49118

4323

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?

Dec 29, 5:17 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

78.3%chance

167101556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18397

5828

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

4.39%chance

5569376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46541

2113

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.15%chance

29463412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21822

2304

Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?

Nov 1, 7:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.13%chance

4844799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32745

4994

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.68%chance

2236231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34661

2885

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

31.25%chance

5818669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

7017

Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?

Sep 5, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.5%chance

5117397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15458

6469

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

7235

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

49

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