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Top stories

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Optimism

What is the outcome of a traditional game of chess with optimal play?

Dec 18, 6:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

848195

OptionProbability

Draw

Win for white

Win for black

90

9

1

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

952

838

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

31.58%chance

353262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1552

557

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.84%chance

292111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

503

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

Techno-Optimism for 2030

Apr 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.25%chance

8121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

110

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 10, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 9, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

PROMISE (OPTIMISM replica of Perseverence Mars Rover) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029?

Jul 3, 3:07 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

28.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

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