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Top stories

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Authors

6

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Optimism

What is the optimal "Bid per redeem" (in MANA)?

May 24, 2:59 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

109691

OptionProbability

NO

YES

109

103

Will the largest AI training run in 2025 utilize Sophia, Second-order Clipped Stochastic Optimization?

May 25, 5:58 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

4.33%chance

224894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4383

592

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

10.84%chance

193742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

813

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

43.1%chance

322836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

736

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

955

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.97%chance

282061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

572

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

98.12%chance

10933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

722

14

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

61.16%chance

8126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.11%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89

56

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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