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Top stories

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Stablecoin Liquidity Hits $129M on Linea, Arbitrum Supply $8.88B, Tether $1.24T Volume Amid 23.7M Monthly Senders

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Optimism

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

74.18%chance

415684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1558

698

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

952

838

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Nov 18, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.15%chance

372655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1513

265

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

272170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

955

Is this packing of three squares in a circle optimal?

Sep 26, 6:13 PMDec 31, 7:12 PM

99.12%chance

141622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

9

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Feb 6, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.18%chance

24785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

947

Will the "Lover's Leap" in Backgammon be proved optimal by 2040?

Dec 28, 12:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.92%chance

3113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

45

Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.

Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.83%chance

12105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

965

Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 10, 4:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "The optimal age to freeze eggs is 19" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 9, 6:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

PROMISE (OPTIMISM replica of Perseverence Mars Rover) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029?

Jul 3, 3:07 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

28.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

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