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Top stories

Banco de México Marks 100 Years With 10-Peso Silver Coin, Special Banknotes, and President Sheinbaum’s Call to Expand Credit

Banco de México Marks 100 Years With 10-Peso Silver Coin, Special Banknotes, and President Sheinbaum’s Call to Expand Credit

Authors

8

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Organic Law

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

750336350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6472

3426

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.03%chance

6826739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

1883

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

648

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.09%chance

665575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

874

Will there be a consensus that hypercomputation is possible by the end of 2050?

Jun 8, 10:05 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

203337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2681

373

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.3%chance

161101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

955

Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?

Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

35.03%chance

13890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

541

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.91%chance

4475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

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