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Top stories

Yuga Labs Unveils ‘Outbreak’ Game for Otherside, ApeCoin Keeps Wheel of Fate Spinning

Yuga Labs Unveils ‘Outbreak’ Game for Otherside, ApeCoin Keeps Wheel of Fate Spinning

Authors

10

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Outbreak

Bird flu H5N1 outbreak in Australia in 2025 or 2026?

Oct 25, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

61049

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1940

515

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.15%chance

251026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

975

Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.

Dec 17, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.55%chance

28809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

840

Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?

Jul 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.77%chance

29567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

839

Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?

Jul 13, 4:18 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

13359

OptionProbability

A state-sponsored research team

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Deepmind

Meta

A university-sponsored research team

34

18

16

15

8

7

3

Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?

Apr 3, 3:03 AMApr 3, 6:59 AM

13.89%chance

10311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

531

150

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Oct 7, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.04%chance

5133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will the origin and outbreak of the Wildfire virus from The Walking Dead be explained before 2030?

Feb 13, 12:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

91.1%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

36

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

54

Will UKHSA declare a national incident over the Kent meningitis outbreak by April 30, 2026?

Mar 19, 1:15 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

25.92%chance

291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will ProMED report a novel influenza outbreak in Asia by March 31, 2026?

Dec 23, 4:59 PMMar 30, 11:00 PM

18.99%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

79

Will there be a major outbreak of avian flu before the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.13%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

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