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Top stories

Yuga Labs Unveils ‘Outbreak’ Game for Otherside, ApeCoin Keeps Wheel of Fate Spinning

Yuga Labs Unveils ‘Outbreak’ Game for Otherside, ApeCoin Keeps Wheel of Fate Spinning

Authors

10

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Outbreak

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

May 14, 6:59 PMDec 31, 7:56 PM

9.22%chance

9011452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

743

Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?

May 12, 4:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.34%chance

354365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3787

767

Will the news identify a 2002 SARS level outbreak event as having been caused by an open weight AI model by EOY 2028?

Jul 28, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

103512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

What will be log(deaths) from the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak by the end of 2027?

May 7, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181988

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

Above 6

Above 7

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?

Apr 3, 3:03 AMApr 3, 6:59 AM

3%chance

131528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

82

By 2040, a major government will have adopted transgender contagion theory and claimed to have control over the outbreak

Sep 27, 2:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.48%chance

261276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

800

Will another outbreak on par with covid-19 happen within the decade.

Dec 17, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.55%chance

28809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

840

Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?

Jul 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.41%chance

30575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

847

Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?

Jul 13, 4:18 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

13361

OptionProbability

A state-sponsored research team

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Deepmind

Meta

A university-sponsored research team

34

19

16

15

8

7

3

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Oct 7, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.03%chance

6303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?

Jul 8, 10:26 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

15.45%chance

392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

54

Will there be a major outbreak of avian flu before the end of 2027?

Jan 24, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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