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OptionProbability
Israel
Hamas
International Peacekeeping Force
PLO
A new Gaza-elected government
United States
Territorial rule by tribal clans
Other
PLA
Arab only Peacekeeping Force
African Peacekeeping Force
Egypt
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Palestinian Islamic Jihad
57
20
6
5
3
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1222
571
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
USA leaves NATO
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
89
86
82
77
77
75
71
68
67
63
62
59
59
59
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
49
47
47
47
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
19
19
18
18
15
14
14
14
13
13
12
11
9
8
8
6
6
4
1
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
90
84
79
77
76
75
72
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
61
60
60
60
60
57
55
55
55
55
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
47
47
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
42
42
42
41
40
40
37
37
37
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
22
15
12
12
7
5
OptionProbability
Israel, occupation
Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)
Other
Hamas, status quo
Israel, annexed
PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority
Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime
Arab puppet regime
Hamas, significantly increased control (no blockade, anything up to independence)
73
16
3
2
2
2
1
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2438
2205
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1160
862
OptionProbability
Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935
Donald Trump, US President, 1946
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939
89
82
78
71
59
40
37
35
35
19
15
13
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2191
100
OptionProbability
US gets involved
Iran attacks Israel
Israel attacks Iran
Israel launches new settlement projects
Wars continue escalating
Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
Israel increases defense spending by 10%
Israel and Egypt strengthen military cooperation
Israel and Jordan sign new trade agreement
Israel's economy enters recession
Israel holds early elections
Israel and Qatar normalize relations
Israel and Turkey restore diplomatic relations
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations
Israel's Prime Minister resigns
Israel annexes parts of the West Bank
Israel declares war on Hezbollah
Israel and Syria normalize relations
Israel and Lebanon sign peace treaty
Israel recognizes Palestinian statehood
100
100
100
87
85
77
66
50
50
50
43
28
28
24
16
13
10
4
2
2
OptionProbability
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978
Donald Trump, US President, 1946
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963
Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984
42
17
11
6
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1325
770
