Palestinian Pelé News

Israel

Hamas

International Peacekeeping Force

PLO

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

Other

PLA

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

NO

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Sudanese Civil War ends

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any country leaves NATO

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

USA leaves NATO

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

China launches military drills around Taiwan

Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations

Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged

China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military

A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up

Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure

At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan

China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft

At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China

A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model

Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer

Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft

China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US

China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan

China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production

China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan

A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

Reports that China is building new concentration camps

A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault

Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China

Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)

A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window

Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome

Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific

Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure

A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances

Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military

the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)

A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China

Significant constitutional crisis in the US

Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military

Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military

A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)

The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)

Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company

Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window

Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West

Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea

1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured

50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia

the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China

A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene

The US bombs Iran

Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific

A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage

An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan

A human walks on the Moon

At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear

Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations

The US reduces sanctions on Russia

Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia

The US attempts to expand its territory by force

Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere

Elon Musk is pardoned

China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds

The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion

Attempted coup in Taiwan

the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China

Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader

The US withdraws from NATO

Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader

100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine

A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia

Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)

AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity

North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

The US military performs combat operations in Mexico

Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader

India detonates a nuclear weapon

Russia cedes territory to China

Vladivostok is not under Russia's control

Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals

Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine

Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building

Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)

Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)

An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast

China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries

AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity

A major pandemic occurs

Attempted coup in Russia

Attempted coup in the Phillipines

The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory

The US detonates a nuclear weapon

The US attacks a NATO member

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges

A nuclear weapon is detonated

Attempted coup in China

Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands

Successful revolution in Iran

Russia detonates a nuclear weapon

Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges

Attempted coup in the US

Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges

China detonates a nuclear weapon

Japan detonates a nuclear weapon

South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon

Australia detonates a nuclear weapon

Israel, occupation

Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)

Other

Hamas, status quo

Israel, annexed

PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority

Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime

Arab puppet regime

YES

YES

Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

YES

US gets involved

Iran attacks Israel

Israel attacks Iran

Israel launches new settlement projects

Wars continue escalating

Ceasefire between Israel and Hamas

Israel increases defense spending by 10%

Israel and Egypt strengthen military cooperation

Israel and Jordan sign new trade agreement

Israel's economy enters recession

Israel holds early elections

Israel and Qatar normalize relations

Israel and Turkey restore diplomatic relations

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations

Israel's Prime Minister resigns

Israel annexes parts of the West Bank

Israel declares war on Hezbollah

Israel and Syria normalize relations

Israel and Lebanon sign peace treaty

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939

Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978

Donald Trump, US President, 1946

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954

Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962

Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963

YES