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Top stories

Meta AI Ends Papers with Code; Hugging Face Rolls Out Successor

Meta AI Ends Papers with Code; Hugging Face Rolls Out Successor

Authors

4

8 days ago

Prediction markets for Paper Pages

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25533

3383

In which year will Nassim Nicholas Taleb publish his next book

Jun 15, 4:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

422479

Will AOH1996 be FDA approved before 2040?

Aug 2, 11:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.35%chance

7710425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4316

1934

Which will happen first: first woman US President 👸or US gets into a new hot war 💥🪖?

Feb 22, 6:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13810157

OptionProbability

US war

Woman President

70

30

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.42%chance

122884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

661

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

17.59%chance

172707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2165

462

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

151979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

723

Will Bronny James score more than 1000 points in his NBA career?

Jun 27, 5:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

24.51%chance

151861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

570

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

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