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Top stories

Grok 4 Beats Gemini 2.5 Pro 3-2, Outperforms GPT-5 on ARC-AGI, Advances to Kaggle AI Chess Finals

Grok 4 Beats Gemini 2.5 Pro 3-2, Outperforms GPT-5 on ARC-AGI, Advances to Kaggle AI Chess Finals

Authors

15

6 days ago

Prediction markets for PDF

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4114504

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

Former US president

38

23

23

23

18

17

15

11

7

7

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30.42%chance

122884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

661

Will GPT-5 be able to GM a session of my custom TTRPG to my satisfaction?

Jun 11, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.04%chance

262831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2131

469

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

681

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

949

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

Nov 8, 6:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.71%chance

9262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

204

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM

55.55%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

76

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

Jan 2, 4:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.37%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

58

Serious bug in Librera: open pdf reader app

Jun 24, 8:48 PMDec 31, 9:43 PM

59.39%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

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