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Top stories

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Authors

5

3 months ago

Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot

Authors

11

4 months ago

Adobe Unveils Acrobat Studio, $25-a-Month AI Workspace for PDFs

Authors

5

4 months ago

Prediction markets for PDF

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4114504

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

Political rival

State governor

Member of congress

State supreme court judge

Supreme court judge

Former US president

38

23

23

23

18

17

15

11

7

7

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2026 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.47%chance

133284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

242359

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031+

2025

27

19

16

13

10

9

6

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.5%chance

71195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

681

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

949

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM

55.55%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

76

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

Jan 2, 4:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.37%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

58

Illegal Agent-like LLM which automatically serves up links to copyrighted texts available by mid 2026

Feb 17, 7:42 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

29.39%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Serious bug in Librera: open pdf reader app

Jun 24, 8:48 PMDec 31, 9:43 PM

59.39%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

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