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Top stories

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Pakistan-Linked APT36 Deploys Linux Desktop Shortcut Malware in Fresh India Spying Push

Authors

5

1 year ago

Microsoft Tests AI Semantic File Search in Windows 11 Copilot

Authors

11

1 year ago

Adobe Unveils Acrobat Studio, $25-a-Month AI Workspace for PDFs

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for PDF

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9521022

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2035+

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

24

21

13

11

10

8

5

3

3

2

0

Will a US president order the assassination of any of the following, and get away without criminal charges before 2029?

Jul 5, 3:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4418027

OptionProbability

Other US citizen

Political underling

Member of the press

Political commentator who isn't a formal member of the press

State governor

Member of congress

Political rival

State supreme court judge

Former US president

Supreme court judge

38

23

22

21

11

10

9

7

7

6

When will I first be able to read a book while driving a private car?

Mar 21, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

275480

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

2031+

2030

2026

2025

31

26

15

15

8

4

1

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

5.4%chance

153657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4184

239

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

86.39%chance

51821

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

397

[Situational awareness] Will pre-2028 LLMs achieve token-output control?

Jul 9, 2:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.26%chance

101490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

947

How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMDec 21, 7:59 AM

211413

OptionProbability

Less than a day

More than a year, less than a decade

More than a week, less than a month

More than a month, less than a year

More than a day, less than a week

More than a decade

36

24

19

14

3

3

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

949

Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?

Nov 8, 6:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.71%chance

9262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

204

[Carlini questions] Open-weight SOTA AI system that can reliably withstand jailbreaking and "prompt injection" attacks

Mar 24, 2:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7116

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

83

76

57

51

12

Will AI turn slides of YouTube presentations into a giant PDF or folder of jpg's by EOY 2026

Feb 12, 12:01 AMDec 16, 4:59 AM

55.55%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

76

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

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