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Prediction markets for Pentecostal
OptionProbability
Resided in the same state as the incident
The shooter killed Charlie Kirk
The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders
Did it on purpose
The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya
The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien
Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?
Born in the United States
Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law
Native English speaker (L1)
Is a registered voter
has at least one sibling
at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account
“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)
n/a
US citizen
White
used a bolt action rifle
Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”
wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing
Male
Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member
had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk
20-27 years old
JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy
Skinny
Turns themselves in to the police / FBI
Lives (or has lived) in Utah
ectomorph body type
He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.
Owns steam profile 76561198159427286
Will plead guilty
at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Acted alone (no accomplices)
Accident please N/A
has purchased furry-related media or items
Furry
Gamer
Is named Tyler Robinson
Hunter
iphone user
Motivated primarily by political ideology
Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)
has expressed positive sentiment towards furries
disliked Charlie Kirk
Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology
Unemployed
Is left wing
is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman
has a furaffinity account
Owns a car
Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area
Strongly opposes zionism
legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk
actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.
Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs
Is sentenced to death
Had bullets with engraved messages on them
Will kill again (including suicide)
Communicated with peers primarily through Discord
Not a virgin
Owns physical furry paraphernalia
extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices
Conspired with an AI chatbot about this
There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account
N/A (oops)
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman
is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry
Dies in prison
has used the word yiff in written communication
Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam
Has ADHD
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump
had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university
6 ft tall
Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy
Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt
has vore kink
Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione
Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)
Owned the firearm used
Went to furry events
cross-dresser
Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire
Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa
Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)
Accelerationist (any subtype)
Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy
Fan fiction author
White cis-hetero Christian man
Will be convicted by EOY 2026
Wrote a manifesto before the shooting
student at any university
was prescribed psychiatric medication
Owns a fursuit
Participates in this market
Transgender
Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma
psychedelics user
Brony or a fan of My Little Pony
Radical Centrist/JREG fan
at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)
Has a Bluesky account
There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account
Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting
Current or previous student at University of Utah
Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member
Former or current Charlie Kirk fan
Contact with CVLT/764/similar
made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)
Was on an FBI watchlist
Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side
has significant student load debt
Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)
Had diagnosed mental illness
Is right wing
J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy
Femboy
History of illegal drug addiction
White Nationalist
Left-handed
Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time
Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender
History of domestic violence
Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way
Ex law enforcement
Will be convicted by EOY 2025
Had felony conviction previously
Incel
groyper
Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?
is Mossad
Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)
Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)
Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)
Escapes carceral detention
Was a student at UVU
Involved in Effective Altruism
Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists
Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets
Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025
Enjoys diplomatic immunity
The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book
Current or former Roman Catholic
A time traveller trying to avoid the worst
Female Ninja Type Sniper
Has a parent who drives for Uber
Parent
decel
Not arrested before EOY 2025
Fled the country after the shooting
Will get killed by law enforcement
Was a fan of Charlie Kirk
Indian national
The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology
Used a handgun
Ex-military
Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14
Has a PhD
Has a Manifold account
Muslim
Veteran
History of alcoholism
Will share their first name with a famous video game character
Teenager
Will be apprehended at a McDonald's
50 years or older
Has a master's degree
Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.
Is or was a computer science student
Married
Manifold assists with his capture
Personally knew Charlie Kirk
The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI
Iranian national
Registered Democrat
is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat
All questions in this market are resolved before 2026
Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head
used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory
The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria
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