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Top stories

EA Confirms Battlefield 6 Under $80 With Grounded Skins and 60FPS, Nintendo Raises Switch Console and Controller Prices

EA Confirms Battlefield 6 Under $80 With Grounded Skins and 60FPS, Nintendo Raises Switch Console and Controller Prices

Authors

16

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Performance Mode

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.97%chance

4911431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3948

253

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Feb 13, 2:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

92.93%chance

264550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1739

875

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

An AI model published prior to the 2025 IMO achieves gold medal performance

Apr 1, 5:04 AMSep 2, 12:00 AM

5.24%chance

181932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

425

24

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

Dec 11, 4:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.82%chance

281443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1608

724

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.94%chance

14898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

695

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.06%chance

14841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

692

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

15558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1001

976

Will "Compact Proofs of Model Performance via Mecha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 4:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 3, 2025
Aug 3, 2025
Video Games
Business
Culture
EA Confirms Battlefield 6 Under $80 With Grounded Skins and 60FPS, Nintendo Raises Switch Console and Controller Prices
Authors
16
1 day ago

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