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Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990
Authors
12
8 months ago
Prediction markets for Performance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.47%chance
292287764
OptionVotes
7849
3528
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.08%chance
11442405
OptionVotes
1455
687
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
72.87%chance
8628116
OptionVotes
1639
610
By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do
Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
9.7%chance
11122065
OptionVotes
3665
1447
OptionVotes
9591
1588
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
Feb 7, 7:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39%chance
608337
OptionVotes
1254
802
Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?
Apr 1, 6:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
79.43%chance
826082
OptionVotes
1499
811
Will Graham Platner perform better than the Alaskan Democratic candidate for senate?
Mar 10, 8:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
65.54%chance
53295
OptionVotes
138
73
Will surgical robots perform more than 75% of a surgical procedure in a human patient, autonomously, before 2030?
Aug 2, 2:02 AMDec 28, 11:59 PM
30.45%chance
351585
OptionVotes
1039
972
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?
Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
35.54%chance
17971
OptionVotes
1118
699
Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029
Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.55%chance
3121
OptionVotes
1351
1158