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Top stories

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

Tesla Launches Model Y Performance in Europe at £61,990

Authors

12

3 months ago

Nvidia Upgrades GeForce Now With RTX 5080 GPUs for 5K Cloud Gaming

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Performance

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

255259969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5157

4769

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Jan 8, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

121201504

OptionProbability

35 - 40%

40 - 45%

45 - 50%

50 - 65%

65 - 100%

0% - 35%

51

19

14

9

6

1

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Jan 23, 2:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

102136169

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

10-20%

20-30%

90-100%

0-10%

52

32

6

3

3

2

1

1

1

0

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1.36%chance

48132685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85011

1176

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 2:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3294190

OptionProbability

60% - 70%

70% - 80%

80% - 90%

90% - 100%

50% - 60%

40% - 50%

24.5% - 40%

61

20

10

3

3

2

1

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

Dec 5, 1:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5877843

OptionProbability

75% - 85%

85% - 90%

90% - 100%

53% - 60%

60% - 70%

70% - 75%

80

14

4

0

0

0

Neural nets will out-perform AI researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64%chance

13439607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

619

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

85%chance

8420890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2380

420

Will I perform at Fyre Festival II?

Jan 12, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.08%chance

348649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10538

1545

Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?

Jan 21, 12:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.31%chance

565620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3083

400

Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?

Sep 10, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.78%chance

435559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3736

120

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