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Phantom News

    Prediction markets for Phantom

    OptionProbability

    The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

    TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

    Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

    The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

    The US has spies working in the North Korean government

    "The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

    The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

    The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

    The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

    The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

    Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

    The UK did Nordstream

    The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

    Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

    The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

    The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

    Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

    John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

    COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

    Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

    Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

    In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

    The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

    COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

    Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

    There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

    Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

    A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

    Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 election so that former first lady Michelle Obama could take his place as the Democratic Party's nominee.

    80

    62

    59

    53

    52

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    50

    45

    35

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    34

    34

    24

    22

    16

    15

    10

    9

    8

    8

    7

    5

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    What books will my son enjoy reading?

    Sep 24, 3:09 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM
    605932

    OptionProbability

    The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle

    Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson

    The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud

    The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart

    The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson

    Sabriel by Garth Nix

    The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle

    Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson

    The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster

    Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card

    Holes by Louis Sachar

    Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate

    The Witches by Roald Dahl

    Small Gods by Terry Pratchett

    Watership Down by Richard Adams

    Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton

    Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein

    Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist

    Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

    Airborne by Kenneth Oppel

    Call of the Wild by Jack London

    The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones

    Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury

    The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy

    Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe

    Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester

    Mythology by Edith Hamilton

    A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon

    The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu

    Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl

    Eragon by Christopher Paolini

    Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones

    Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky

    Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton

    On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber

    The Martian by Andy Weir

    The Culture series by Iain M Banks

    A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin

    100

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    86

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    65

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    50

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    43

    36

    31

    29

    29

    0

    Humanoid robot kills human in Ukrain war in 2026?

    Mar 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8.72%chance
    4365

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1030

    568

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    236

    126

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