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Prediction markets for Phase III
OptionVotes
213
47
Will AOH1996 advance past Phase II trials by the end of 2027?
Aug 3, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43.26%chance
15884
OptionVotes
1068
895
Does Janssen's CD59 gene therapy for age-related macular degeneration work?
Jun 4, 2:58 AMJun 11, 6:59 AM
34.12%chance
3401
OptionVotes
1393
723
OptionVotes
1350
741
Will Deuterated N,N-Dimethyltryptamine undergo phase III trials by EOY 2027?
Jan 17, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24%chance
6290
OptionVotes
143
112
[Metaculus] By June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine w/o phase III in response to a public health emergency?
Oct 12, 10:28 PMJun 2, 9:00 AM
15.79%chance
5156
OptionVotes
219
69
OptionProbability
19
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
Will a dengue vaccine based on TV003/TV005 be approved before 2050?
Jan 4, 12:34 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
61.94%chance
553
OptionVotes
341
288
Will a novel therapeutic/device which confers a survival benefit for glioblastoma be FDA approved by EOY 2028?
Aug 16, 12:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.83%chance
340
OptionVotes
610
590
OptionProbability
28
20
15
12
12
12
Will cevumeran start a Phase III trial for pancreatic cancer by 2030?
May 26, 9:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
57.43%chance
212
OptionVotes
78
63
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